While transport infrastructure and travel demand are known to be correlated, their causal relationship has not been systematically investigated. Granger causality tests have been conducted in the context of transport infrastructure and economic growth, and land use and transport. This research extends their application to network investments and travel demand by examining the co-evolution of public transport access and ridership in the Greater Sydney region for a period spanning over a century, from 1855 onward. We hypothesise a mutual feedback between public transport ridership and access, and corroborate the hypothesis in all causal models estimated – between aggregate public transport ridership and access, station ridership and access, and mesh block public transport shares and access. The causality was more evident in disaggregate models and was stronger between ridership and access to jobs than with access to population when employment data were available. Ours is the first longitudinal investigation into the causal relationship between public transport access and ridership. The findings strengthen the case for using access as a planning measure and lay the groundwork for evolutionary strategic transport modelling.

中文翻译：

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公共交通准入和乘客量的共同演化

虽然众所周知交通基础设施和旅行需求是相关的，但它们的因果关系尚未得到系统的调查。格兰杰因果关系检验是在交通基础设施和经济增长以及土地利用和交通的背景下进行的。这项研究通过研究自 1855 年起一个多世纪以来大悉尼地区公共交通接入和乘客量的共同演变，将其应用扩展到网络投资和出行需求。我们假设公共交通客流量和通达率之间存在相互反馈，并在所有估计的因果模型中证实了这一假设——公共交通总客流量和通达率、车站客流量和通达率以及网格块公共交通份额和通达率之间的相互反馈。在有就业数据的情况下，分类模型中的因果关系更为明显，并且载客量与就业机会之间的因果关系比人口与就业机会之间的因果关系更强。我们的研究是对公共交通通达与乘客量之间因果关系的首次纵向调查。研究结果强化了使用交通作为规划措施的理由，并为演化战略交通模型奠定了基础。