Future dynamics of biological invasions are highly uncertain because they depend on multiple social–ecological drivers. We used a scenario-based approach to explore potential management options for invasive species in Europe. During two workshops involving a multidisciplinary team of experts, we developed a management strategy arranged into 19 goals relating to policy, research, public awareness, and biosecurity. We conceived solutions for achieving these goals under different plausible future scenarios, and identified four interrelated recommendations around which any long-term strategy for managing invasive species can be structured: (1) a European biosecurity regime, (2) a dedicated communication strategy, (3) data standardization and management tools, and (4) a monitoring and assessment system. Finally, we assessed the feasibility of the management strategy and found substantial differences among scenarios. Collectively, our results indicate that it is time for a new strategy for managing biological invasions in Europe, one that is based on a more integrative approach across socioeconomic sectors and countries.

中文翻译：

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未来生物入侵管理的情景指导策略

生物入侵的未来动态高度不确定，因为它们取决于多种社会生态驱动因素。我们使用基于情景的方法来探索欧洲入侵物种的潜在管理方案。在由多学科专家团队参加的两次研讨会上，我们制定了一项管理战略，分为与政策、研究、公众意识和生物安全相关的 19 个目标。我们设想了在不同的可能的未来情景下实现这些目标的解决方案，并确定了四项相互关联的建议，围绕这些建议可以构建管理入侵物种的长期战略：（1）欧洲生物安全制度，（2）专门的沟通策略，（ 3）数据标准化和管理工具，以及（4）监测和评估系统。最后，我们评估了管理策略的可行性，发现场景之间存在显着差异。总的来说，我们的结果表明，现在是时候制定一项管理欧洲生物入侵的新战略了，该战略基于跨社会经济部门和国家的更加一体化的方法。