OBJECTIVE To describe the natural history of diabetes in Indians. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Data are from participants older than 20 years in the Centre for Cardiometabolic Risk Reduction in South Asia longitudinal study. Glycemic states were defined per American Diabetes Association criteria. Markov models were used to estimate annual transition probabilities and sojourn time through states. RESULTS Among 2,714 diabetes-free participants, 641 had isolated impaired fasting glucose (iIFG), and 341 had impaired glucose tolerance (IGT). The annual transition to diabetes for those with IGT was 13.9% (95% CI 12.0, 15.9) versus 8.6% (7.3, 9.8) for iIFG. In the normoglycemia ↔ iIFG → diabetes model, mean sojourn time in normoglycemia was 40.3 (34.6, 48.2) years, and sojourn time in iIFG was 9.7 (8.4, 11.4) years. For the normoglycemia ↔ IGT → diabetes model, mean sojourn time in normoglycemia was 34.5 (29.5, 40.8) years, and sojourn time in IGT was 6.1 (5.3, 7.1) years. CONCLUSION Individuals reside in normoglycemia for 35–40 years; however, progression from prediabetes to diabetes is rapid.

中文翻译：

---

印度人 2 型糖尿病的自然史：进展时间

目的 描述印度人糖尿病的自然史。研究设计和方法 数据来自南亚降低心脏代谢风险中心纵向研究中 20 岁以上的参与者。血糖状态根据美国糖尿病协会标准定义。马尔可夫模型用于估计每年的过渡概率和各州的停留时间。结果 在 2,714 名无糖尿病参与者中，641 名患有空腹血糖受损 (iIFG)，341 名患有糖耐量受损 (IGT)。IGT 患者每年转为糖尿病的比例为 13.9%（95% CI 12.0, 15.9），iIFG 患者每年转为糖尿病的比例为 8.6%（7.3, 9.8）。在正常血糖→iIFG→糖尿病模型中，正常血糖的平均停留时间为40.3（34.6，48.2）年，iIFG的平均停留时间为9.7（8.4，11.4）年。对于正常血糖↔ IGT→糖尿病模型，正常血糖的平均停留时间为34.5（29.5，40.8）年，IGT的平均停留时间为6.1（5.3，7.1）年。结论 个体在正常血糖状态下生存 35-40 年；然而，从糖尿病前期进展为糖尿病的速度很快。