Stalls in fertility decline have been found in many sub-Saharan African countries. Our objective is to unravel the relationship between education and stalled fertility by analyzing the extent to which fertility stalls reflect a lack of changes in the educational composition of the population or are related to reversals and halts in the fertility decline within educational groups. Using the Demographic and Health Surveys and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys, we first estimate total fertility rates by educational level and examine how they have varied over time, especially during periods of stagnation. Then, we use the Kitagawa decomposition method to analyze changes in country-level fertility rates. We show that fertility stalls tend to be a collective experience with fertility stalls found among all educational groups in most countries that have experienced a fertility stall. In contrast, composition effects either have no or a limited impact on fertility stalls. However, slow educational progress made some countries more vulnerable to stalls.

中文翻译：

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不同教育水平对教育进步和生育动态的干扰：揭示撒哈拉以南非洲地区教育与生育停滞之间的联系

许多撒哈拉以南非洲国家的生育率下降已停滞。我们的目标是通过分析生育停滞在多大程度上反映出人口教育构成缺乏变化或与教育群体内生育率下降的逆转和停止相关的程度，来揭示教育与生育停滞之间的关系。利用人口和健康调查以及多指标类集调查，我们首先按教育水平估算总生育率，并研究它们随时间的变化，特别是在停滞时期。然后，我们采用北川分解法来分析国家层面生育率的变化。我们表明，生育停滞往往是一种集体经历，在大多数经历过生育停滞的国家的所有教育群体中都发现了生育停滞。相比之下，成分效应对生育停滞没有影响或影响有限。然而，教育进步缓慢使一些国家更容易陷入停滞。