Initial damage, caused by previous wave loading or other events, might affect the hydraulic stability of pattern-placed revetments. Three common types of damage are considered in this study. The effect of this assumed initial damage on the hydraulic stability and failure probability of revetments is quantified using a FEM model. This model is developed using data from large-scale flume and field experiments. Using results from the FEM model, surrogate models are created to predict the effect of each type of initial damage on the hydraulic stability and failure probability. Through the use of these surrogate models, it is demonstrated that S-shaped deformation caused by filter migration around the wave impact zone has the largest effect on the hydraulic stability decreasing up to 30%, and failure probability per year increasing up to 10,000 times. When the granular filling between the joints of the columns is washed-out, the stability decreases up to 29% and the failure probability increases up to 700 times. A missing column has a limited effect on the hydraulic stability and failure probability when there is no other (structural) damage. However, if it originates from underlying damage, it might be an initial sign of total failure of the revetment. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of finite element modeling for studying (damaged) revetments, which can be used to complement flume experiments. The results can be used to prioritize maintenance efforts in risk-based maintenance of pattern-placed revetments.

中文翻译：

---

使用有限元建模估计假设初始损坏对堤坝上图案铺设护岸水力稳定性的影响

由先前的波浪载荷或其他事件引起的初始损坏可能会影响图案布置护岸的水力稳定性。本研究考虑了三种常见的损坏类型。使用有限元模型量化了假设的初始损坏对护岸水力稳定性和失效概率的影响。该模型是利用大规模水槽和现场实验的数据开发的。使用有限元模型的结果，创建替代模型来预测每种类型的初始损坏对水力稳定性和失效概率的影响。通过使用这些替代模型，结果表明，波浪冲击区周围过滤器迁移引起的S形变形对水力稳定性影响最大，可降低高达30%，每年的失效概率增加高达10,000倍。当柱节间的颗粒填充物被冲刷掉时，稳定性下降达29%，失效概率增加达700倍。当没有其他（结构）损坏时，缺失的柱对水力稳定性和故障概率的影响有限。然而，如果它源于潜在的损坏，则可能是护岸完全失效的最初迹象。这项研究证明了有限元建模对于研究（受损）护岸的有效性，可用于补充水槽实验。结果可用于在基于风险的模式放置护岸维护中确定维护工作的优先顺序。