III–V/Silicon tandem solar cells offer one of the most promising avenues for high-efficiency, high-stability photovoltaics. However, a key concern is the potential environmental release of group III–V elements, especially arsenic. To inform long-term policies on the energy transition and energy security, we develop and implement a framework that fully integrates future PV demand scenarios with dynamic stock, emission, and fate models in a probabilistic ecological risk assessment. We examine three geographical scales: local (including a floating utility-scale PV and waste treatment), regional (city-wide), and continental (Europe). Our probabilistic assessment considers a wide range of possible values for over one hundred uncertain technical, environmental, and regulatory parameters. We find that III–V/silicon PV integration in energy grids at all scales presents low-to-negligible risks to soil and freshwater organisms. Risks are further abated if recycling of III–V materials is considered at the panels' end-of-life.

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高效III-V族/硅串联太阳能电池的前瞻性生态风险评估

III-V/硅串联太阳能电池为高效、高稳定性光伏发电提供了最有前途的途径之一。然而，一个关键问题是 III-V 族元素（尤其是砷）可能向环境释放。为了为能源转型和能源安全的长期政策提供信息，我们开发并实施了一个框架，将未来光伏需求情景与动态存量、排放和命运模型完全整合到概率生态风险评估中。我们研究了三个地理尺度：本地（包括浮动公用事业规模的光伏发电和废物处理）、区域（城市范围）和大陆（欧洲）。我们的概率评估考虑了一百多个不确定的技术、环境和监管参数的各种可能值。我们发现，所有规模的电网中的 III-V/硅光伏集成对土壤和淡水生物的风险低至可以忽略不计。如果在电池板报废时考虑回收 III-V 族材料，则风险会进一步降低。