Snakes in Africa are responsible for over 20,000 deaths annually, their indiscriminate killing. As a result, snakes are vulnerable to human population increases even at low intensities. Thus, the predicted doubling of Africa's population by 2050 is likely to pose a disproportionate threat to snakes compared to other taxa. Here we quantify the current and future overlap of snake distributions and human population density under three scenarios of population growth. We find that by 2050, on average, 71% of snake ranges of conservation concern will overlap with areas occupied by ten or more people per km², a 22% increase from 2020. In addition, the number of Least Concern species with most of their range within areas with high human population density will more than double, likely increasing the number of threatened species over the next decades. Our results call for immediate policy action targeting people's perceptions and fears of snakes, and incorporating snakes directly into development and conservation plans to reduce the impact of future urban expansions across Africa.

中文翻译：

---

恐惧因素——非洲的蛇可能面临惊人的灭绝风险

非洲的蛇类肆意捕杀，每年导致 20,000 多人死亡。因此，即使在低强度的情况下，蛇也很容易受到人口增长的影响。因此，与其他类群相比，预计到 2050 年非洲人口将翻一番，这可能对蛇造成不成比例的威胁。在这里，我们量化了三种人口增长情景下蛇分布和人口密度当前和未来的重叠。我们发现，到 2050 年，平均 71% 的受保护蛇类分布范围将与每平方公里 10 人或更多人居住的区域重叠^，比 2020 年增加 22%。此外，最不受关注的物种数量它们在人口密度高的地区的活动范围将增加一倍以上，可能会在未来几十年增加受威胁物种的数量。我们的研究结果呼吁立即采取政策行动，消除人们对蛇的看法和恐惧，并将蛇直接纳入发展和保护计划，以减少非洲未来城市扩张的影响。