The COVID-19 pandemic was accompanied by social and economic changes previously associated with fertility delay and reduction, sparking widespread discussion of a “baby bust” in the United States. We examine fertility trends using restricted vital statistics data from California, a diverse population of 40 million, contributing 12 percent of U.S. births. Using time series models that account for longer-run fertility trends, we observe modest, short-term reductions in births from mid-2020 through early 2021. Birth counts in subsequent months matched or even eased the pace of fertility decline since the 2008 recession and are unlikely a function of the pandemic alone. Responses to the pandemic were heterogeneous. Fertility declined markedly among the foreign-born population, largely driven by changes in net migration. Among the U.S.-born population, the short-term pandemic-attributable reductions were largest among older, highly educated people, suggesting mechanisms of fertility reduction disparately accessible to those with the most resources. We find no evidence of a strong population fertility response to the pandemic's accompanying employment shock, providing additional evidence of a growing divide between macroeconomic conditions and fertility patterns in the United States.

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大流行中的生育率：来自加利福尼亚州的证据

COVID-19大流行伴随着先前与生育延迟和减少相关的社会和经济变化，引发了美国对“婴儿潮”的广泛讨论。我们使用加利福尼亚州有限的生命统计数据来研究生育趋势，该州拥有 4000 万多元化人口，占美国出生人口的 12%。使用考虑长期生育趋势的时间序列模型，我们观察到从 2020 年中期到 2021 年初，出生人数出现适度的短期下降。随后几个月的出生人数与 2008 年经济衰退以来的生育率下降速度相匹配，甚至有所减缓，不太可能仅是大流行的一个原因。对这一流行病的反应各不相同。外国出生人口的生育率显着下降，这主要是由于净移民的变化所致。在美国出生的人口中，受大流行影响的短期生育率下降幅度最大的是年龄较大、受过高等教育的人群，这表明生育率下降机制对那些拥有最多资源的人来说是不同的。我们没有发现任何证据表明人口生育率对大流行带来的就业冲击做出了强有力的反应，这为美国宏观经济状况和生育模式之间的差距日益扩大提供了额外的证据。