This systematic review examines which domain-specific numeracy skills in the first year of formal schooling most reliably predict achievement in mathematics during primary school. Longitudinal studies that assessed domain-specific skills in the first year of formal schooling and mathematical outcomes at a later grade in primary school were included. Databases were searched in July 2020. Fifty-four studies were included, representing 13,453 participants. We investigated the strength of the associations between different types of domain-specific skills and mathematical outcomes through correlated effects models and random effects univariate meta-analyses. Results showed small to large significant positive correlations. The strength of the evidence is limited by the small number of studies and the variability found in measures. The findings are analyzed in light of theoretical models of numerical cognition. Implications for future research are discussed.

这项系统综述研究了正规教育第一年哪些特定领域的计算技能最能可靠地预测小学数学成绩。纵向研究评估了正规学校教育第一年的特定领域技能和小学高年级的数学成绩。数据库于 2020 年 7 月进行了检索。纳入了 54 项研究，代表 13,453 名参与者。我们通过相关效应模型和随机效应单变量荟萃分析，研究了不同类型的特定领域技能和数学结果之间的关联强度。结果显示从小到大呈显着正相关。证据的强度受到研究数量较少和测量结果的可变性的限制。根据数值认知的理论模型对研究结果进行了分析。讨论了对未来研究的影响。