Introduction

The World Health Organization (WHO)'s Research and Development (R&D) Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics, a plan of action, highlighted several infectious diseases as crucial targets for prevention. These infections were selected based on a thorough assessment of factors such as transmissibility, infectivity, severity, and evolutionary potential. In line with this blueprint, the VACCELERATE Site Network approached infectious disease experts to rank the diseases listed in the WHO R&D Blueprint according to their perceived risk of triggering a pandemic. VACCELERATE is an EU-funded collaborative European network of clinical trial sites, established to respond to emerging pandemics and enhance vaccine development capabilities.

Methods

Between February and June 2023, a survey was conducted using an online form to collect data from members of the VACCELERATE Site Network and infectious disease experts worldwide. Participants were asked to rank various pathogens based on their perceived risk of causing a pandemic, including those listed in the WHO R&D Blueprint and additional pathogens.

Results

A total of 187 responses were obtained from infectious disease experts representing 57 countries, with Germany, Spain, and Italy providing the highest number of replies. Influenza viruses received the highest rankings among the pathogens, with 79 % of participants including them in their top rankings. Disease X, SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV, and Ebola virus were also ranked highly. Hantavirus, Lassa virus, Nipah virus, and henipavirus were among the bottom-ranked pathogens in terms of pandemic potential.

Conclusion

Influenza, SARS-CoV, SARS-CoV-2, and Ebola virus were found to be the most concerning pathogens with pandemic potential, characterised by transmissibility through respiratory droplets and a reported history of epidemic or pandemic outbreaks.

中文翻译：

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预测下一次大流行：世界卫生组织预防流行病行动蓝图的 VACCELERATE 排名

介绍

世界卫生组织 (WHO) 的流行病预防行动研发 (R&D) 蓝图，一项行动计划强调了几种传染病作为预防的重要目标。这些感染的选择是基于对传播性、传染性、严重性和进化潜力等因素的全面评估。根据此蓝图，VACCELERATE 站点网络联系了传染病专家，根据他们感知的感染风险，对世界卫生组织研发蓝图中列出的疾病进行了排名引发大流行。 VACCELERATE 是一个由欧盟资助的欧洲临床试验中心合作网络，旨​​在应对新出现的流行病并增强疫苗开发能力。

方法

2023 年 2 月至 6 月期间，使用在线表格进行了一项调查，向 VACCELERATE 站点网络成员和全球传染病专家收集数据。参与者被要求根据他们认为的引起大流行的风险对各种病原体进行排名，包括世界卫生组织研发蓝图中列出的病原体以及其他病原体。< /span>

结果

共收到来自 57 个国家的传染病专家的 187 份回复，其中德国、西班牙和意大利的回复数量最多。流感病毒在病原体中排名最高，79% 的参与者将其列为最高排名。疾病 X、SARS-CoV-2、SARS-CoV 和埃博拉病毒也排名靠前。就大流行潜力而言，汉坦病毒、拉沙病毒、尼帕病毒和亨尼帕病毒属于排名垫底的病原体。

结论

流感、SARS-CoV、SARS-CoV-2 和埃博拉病毒被发现是最令人担忧的具有大流行潜力的病原体，其特点是通过呼吸道飞沫传播，并且有流行病或大流行爆发的报告历史。