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(Path)ways to sustainable living: The impact of the SLIM scenarios on long-term emissions
Global Environmental Change ( IF 8.9 ) Pub Date : 2023-12-02 , DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102774
Nicole J. van den Berg , Andries F. Hof , Vanessa Timmer , Lewis Akenji , Detlef P. van Vuuren

Sustainable lifestyles and behaviour changes can be vital in climate change mitigation. Various disciplines analyse the potential for such changes – but without much interaction. Qualitative studies look into the change process (e.g. social practice theory), while quantitative studies often focus on their impact in stylised cases (e.g. energy modelling). A more holistic approach can provide insightful scenarios with diverse lifestyle changes based on informed narratives for quantifying long-term impacts. This research explores how comprehensive sustainable lifestyle scenarios, coined SLIM (Sustainable Living in Models) scenarios, could contribute to transport and residential emission reductions. By translating and quantifying lifestyle scenario narratives through engagements with advisors and policymakers, we modelled two distinct lifestyle scenarios which differ in their degree of access to structural support. In one scenario, governments, corporations and cities leverage existing values and market systems to shape citizen and consumer preferences and everyday practices. In the other scenario, people adopt ambitious sustainable lifestyle behaviours and practices through peer-to-peer interaction and digital technology. We quantified the scenarios based on motivations, contextual factors, extent, and speed of lifestyle adoptions with regional differentiation. Furthermore, we applied heterogenous adopter groups to determine the model inputs. We present the resulting pathways in per capita emissions and more detailed changes in total emissions via decomposition analyses. We conclude that regional differentiation of the scenario narratives and modelling of intra-regional differences allows accounting for equity in lifestyle changes to a certain extent. Furthermore, new technologies are more important for enabling lifestyle change in a scenario with than a scenario without strong structural support. With strong structural support, lifestyle changes reduce transport and residential emissions to a larger degree (about 39% for Global North and 27% for Global South overall in 2050 relative to a “Middle-of-the-Road” SSP2 reference scenario in 2050). Thus, lifestyle changes in larger systems change are essential for effective climate change mitigation.



中文翻译:

可持续生活的(途径)途径:SLIM 情景对长期排放的影响

可持续的生活方式和行为改变对于减缓气候变化至关重要。不同学科分析此类变化的潜力,但没有太多互动。定性研究着眼于变化过程(例如社会实践理论),而定量研究通常关注其对程式化案例的影响(例如能源建模)。更全面的方法可以根据有见识的叙述提供具有洞察力的场景以及各种生活方式的改变,以量化长期影响。本研究探讨了全面的可持续生活方式情景(创造的 SLIM(可持续生活模型)情景)如何有助于减少交通和住宅排放。通过与顾问和政策制定者的接触来翻译和量化生活方式情景叙述,我们模拟了两种不同的生活方式情景,它们获得结构性支持的程度不同。在一种情况下,政府、企业和城市利用现有的价值观和市场体系来 塑造公民和消费者的偏好和日常实践。在另一种情况下,人们通过点对点互动和数字技术采取雄心勃勃的可持续生活方式行为和实践。我们根据地区差异的生活方式采用的动机、背景因素、程度和速度对情景进行了量化。此外,我们应用异构采用者群体来确定模型输入。我们通过分解分析提出了人均排放量的最终路径和总排放量的更详细变化。我们的结论是,情景叙述的区域差异和区域内差异的建模可以在一定程度上解释生活方式变化的公平性。此外,在有强有力的结构支持的情况下,新技术对于实现生活方式的改变更为重要。在强有力的结构性支持下,生活方式的改变可在更大程度上减少交通和住宅排放(相对于 2050 年“中间路线”SSP2 参考情景,到 2050 年,北半球总体约为 39%,南半球约为 27%) 。因此,更大系统变化中生活方式的改变对于有效缓解气候变化至关重要。

更新日期:2023-12-07
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