Areas beyond national jurisdiction, or the high seas, are vital to life on Earth. However, the conservation of these areas, for example, through area-based management tools (ABMTs), is challenging, particularly when accounting for global change. Using decision science, integrated population models, and a Critically Endangered seabird (Kuaka; Pelecanoides whenuahouensis) as a case study, we evaluated potential ABMTs in the high seas under global change and different governance structures, while accounting for uncertainty and imperfect compliance. Our study highlighted that global change in these areas will likely cause population declines of ∼60% by 2050. However, decisive conservation action could cost-effectively address predicted declines, particularly when implemented as soon as possible and under the Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction Treaty. We illustrate how decision science can transparently navigate a complex seascape of management decisions and we advocate for its wider integration in the management of the largest sections of our planet, the high seas.

中文翻译：

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面对全球变化，迫切需要在国家管辖范围以外地区采取果断的保护行动，以实现海鸟的恢复

国家管辖范围以外的区域或公海对于地球上的生命至关重要。然而，通过区域管理工具（ABMT）等方式保护这些区域具有挑战性，特别是在考虑全球变化时。我们利用决策科学、综合种群模型和极度濒危海鸟（Kuaka；Pelecanoides whenuahouensis）作为案例研究，评估了全球变化和不同治理结构下公海潜在的 ABMT，同时考虑了不确定性和不完善的合规性。我们的研究强调，到 2050 年，这些地区的全球变化可能会导致人口减少约 60%。然而，果断的保护行动可以经济有效地解决预计的人口减少问题，特别是在尽快根据《国家管辖范围外生物多样性条约》实施的情况下。我们阐释了决策科学如何透明地驾驭复杂的管理决策，并倡导将其更广泛地融入地球上最大区域——公海的管理中。