Research on clinical versus statistical prediction has demonstrated that algorithms make more accurate predictions than humans in many domains. Geopolitical forecasting is an algorithm-unfriendly domain, with hard-to-quantify data and elusive reference classes that make predictive model-building difficult. Furthermore, the stakes can be high, with missed forecasts leading to mass-casualty consequences. For these reasons, geopolitical forecasting is typically done by humans, even though algorithms play important roles. They are essential as aggregators of crowd wisdom, as frameworks to partition human forecasting variance, and as inputs to hybrid forecasting models. Algorithms are extremely important in this domain. We doubt that humans will relinquish control to algorithms anytime soon-nor do we think they should. However, the accuracy of forecasts will greatly improve if humans are aided by algorithms.

中文翻译：

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地缘政治预测中的人类和算法预测：量化难以量化领域的不确定性。

临床预测与统计预测的研究表明，算法在许多领域比人类做出更准确的预测。地缘政治预测是一个算法不友好的领域，具有难以量化的数据和难以捉摸的参考类，使得预测模型的构建变得困难。此外，风险可能很高，错过预测会导致大规模人员伤亡。由于这些原因，尽管算法发挥着重要作用，但地缘政治预测通常是由人类完成的。它们作为群体智慧的聚合器、划分人类预测方差的框架以及混合预测模型的输入至关重要。算法在这个领域极其重要。我们怀疑人类会很快放弃对算法的控制——我们也不认为他们应该这样做。然而，如果人类得到算法的帮助，预测的准确性将大大提高。