International humanitarian organisations increasingly turn to forecast teams to support the coordination of efforts to respond to disasters caused by hazards such as tropical cyclones and large-scale fluvial floods. Such disasters often occur where there is limited local capacity or information available to support decision making and so global forecasting capacity is utilised to provide impact-based flood forecast bulletins. A multidisciplinary team joined together to provide forecast bulletins and expertise for such events through the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Development Office (FCDO). This paper captures the successes and challenges from two cyclones: Hurricane Iota in Central America (November 2020) and Cyclone Eloise in Mozambique (January 2021). Recommendations to improve global forecasting systems are made which will benefit the international community of researchers and practitioners involved in disaster prediction, anticipatory action and response. These include the need for additional data and expertise to support the interpretation of global models, clear documentation to support decision makers faced with multiple sources of information, and the development of user relevant metrics to assess the skill of global models. We discuss the value of effective partnerships and improving synergies between global models and local contexts, highlighting how global forecasting can help build local forecasting capability.

中文翻译：

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改进全球洪水预报解释以支持针对热带气旋的国际人道主义行动的建议

国际人道主义组织越来越多地求助于预报小组来支持协调努力，应对热带气旋和大规模河流洪水等灾害造成的灾害。此类灾害经常发生在当地能力或可用于支持决策的信息有限的情况下，因此利用全球预报能力来提供基于影响的洪水预报公告。多学科团队联合起来，通过英国外交和联邦发展办公室 (FCDO) 为此类事件提供预测公告和专业知识。本文介绍了两次气旋的成功和挑战：中美洲的飓风艾奥塔（2020 年 11 月）和莫桑比克的气旋埃洛伊兹（2021 年 1 月）。提出了改进全球预报系统的建议，这将使参与灾害预测、预期行动和应对的国际研究人员和从业人员受益。其中包括需要额外的数据和专业知识来支持全球模型的解释，需要清晰的文档来支持面临多种信息源的决策者，以及开发用户相关指标来评估全球模型的技能。我们讨论有效合作伙伴关系以及改善全球模型与当地环境之间协同作用的价值，强调全球预测如何帮助建立当地预测能力。