Political frictions significantly affect both pricing and supply in the long-term care insurance (LTCI) market. Comparing the same insurer’s requests submitted for the same policy at the same time to different state regulators, we find that they are 13% more likely to be approved and receive 4% more of the requested amount after an election year. Over time, regulatory pushback on premium increase requests leads to persistently lower cash reserves and increases the probability of company dropout. An insurer who receives one-standard-deviation less of their requested increase is 20% more likely to leave the market next year.

中文翻译：

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政治摩擦对保险定价和供应的影响

政治摩擦严重影响长期护理保险（LTCI）市场的定价和供应。比较同一家保险公司同时向不同州监管机构提交的相同保单请求，我们发现他们获得批准的可能性高出 13%，并且在选举年之后获得的请求金额多出 4%。随着时间的推移，监管机构对增加保费请求的抵制会导致现金储备持续下降，并增加公司退出的可能性。如果保险公司收到的加价幅度比其要求的加薪少一个标准差，那么明年退出市场的可能性就会增加 20%。