The reintroduction and recovery of predators can be ecologically beneficial as well as socially and economically controversial. However, the growth and expansion of predator populations, and thus their ecological, social, and economic impacts, are not static but rather they vary in space and time. We propose a spatiotemporal statistical modeling framework based on ecological diffusion to better inform the ecology and management of recovering predators and their prey. We demonstrate its utility by applying it to a recovering sea otter (Enhydra lutris) population in Southeast Alaska, where sea otters were reintroduced in the late 1960s and have exhibited unprecedented population growth. Estimated parameters yield inferences about movement and population ecology, and our approach provides useful derived quantities, such as local abundance and carrying capacity as well as a quantity we term the equilibrium differential. We used our model to examine how density dependence and carrying capacity of sea otters vary spatially across a region. The diffusion modeling approach we present can be generalized for use in other instances of (re)colonization across taxa to inform management and conservation efforts.

中文翻译：

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通过生态扩散模型为恢复捕食者及其猎物的管理提供信息

捕食者的重新引入和恢复可能对生态有益，但在社会和经济上也存在争议。然而，捕食者种群的增长和扩张，及其对生态、社会和经济的影响，并不是静态的，而是随空间和时间而变化的。我们提出了一个基于生态扩散的时空统计模型框架，以更好地为恢复捕食者及其猎物的生态和管理提供信息。我们通过将其应用于阿拉斯加东南部正在恢复的海獭 ( EnHydra lutris ) 种群来展示其实用性，该地区的海獭在 20 世纪 60 年代末被重新引入，并呈现出前所未有的种群增长。估计的参数产生关于运动和种群生态的推论，我们的方法提供了有用的导出量，例如局部丰度和承载能力以及我们称之为平衡差异的量。我们使用我们的模型来研究海獭的密度依赖性和承载能力在整个区域的空间变化。我们提出的扩散建模方法可以推广用于跨类群的（重新）殖民化的其他实例，为管理和保护工作提供信息。