Gene drives offer a potentially revolutionary method for pest control over large spatial extents. These genetic modifications spread deleterious variants through a population and have been proposed as methods for pest suppression or even eradication. We examined the influence of local dispersal, long-distance and/or human-mediated dispersal, and variation in population growth on the success of a gene drive for the control of invasive social wasps (Vespula vulgaris). Our simulations incorporated a spatially realistic environment containing variable habitat quality in New Zealand. Pest eradication was not observed, except in extreme and unrealistic scenarios of constant, widespread, and spatially intense releases of genetically modified individuals every year for decades. Instead, the regional persistence of genetically modified and wild-type wasps was predicted. Simulations using spatially homogeneous versus realistic landscapes (incorporating uninhabitable areas and dispersal barriers) showed little difference in overall population dynamics. Overall, little impact on wasp abundance was observed in the first 15 years after introduction. After 25 years, populations were suppressed to levels <95% of starting populations. Populations exhibited “chase dynamics” with population cycles in space, with local extinction occurring in some areas while wasps became abundant in others. Increasing the wasps' local dispersal distance increased the spatial and temporal variability of the occupied area and population suppression. Varying levels of human-associated long-distance dispersal had little effect on population dynamics. Increasing intrinsic population growth rates interacted with local dispersal to cause higher mean populations and substantially higher levels of variation in population suppression and the total amount of landscape occupied. Gene drives appear unlikely to cause a rapid and widespread extinction of this and probably other pests but could offer long-term and cost-effective methods of pest suppression. The predicted level of <95% pest suppression would substantially reduce the predation pressure and competitive interactions of this invasive wasp on native species. However, the predicted long-term persistence of genetically modified pests will influence the ethics and likelihood of using gene drives for pest control, especially given concerns that modified wasps would eventually be transported back to their home range.

中文翻译：

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用于控制入侵黄蜂的基因驱动：灭绝不太可能，抑制取决于扩散和生长速度

基因驱动为大空间范围内的害虫控制提供了一种潜在的革命性方法。这些基因改造在群体中传播有害变异，并被提议作为抑制甚至根除害虫的方法。我们研究了本地扩散、远距离和/或人类介导的扩散以及种群增长的变化对控制入侵性社会黄蜂（黄蜂）的基因驱动成功的影响。我们的模拟结合了新西兰一个包含可变栖息地质量的空间现实环境。除了几十年来每年持续、广泛和空间密集释放转基因个体的极端和不切实际的情况外，没有观察到害虫被根除。相反，人们预测转基因黄蜂和野生型黄蜂将在区域内持续存在。使用空间同质与现实景观（包括不适宜居住的区域和分散障碍）进行的模拟显示，总体人口动态几乎没有差异。总体而言，在引入后的前 15 年中，观察到对黄蜂丰度的影响很小。25 年后，种群数量被抑制到低于起始种群数量的 95%。种群在太空中呈现出种群周期的“追逐动态”，一些地区发生局部灭绝，而另一些地区黄蜂却变得丰富。增加黄蜂的局部扩散距离会增加占据区域和种群抑制的时空变化。与人类相关的不同程度的远距离扩散对种群动态影响不大。人口内在增长率的提高与局部扩散相互作用，导致平均人口增加，人口抑制和占用景观总量的变化水平大幅提高。基因驱动似乎不太可能导致这种害虫以及其他害虫的快速和广泛灭绝，但可以提供长期且具有成本效益的害虫抑制方法。预计害虫抑制水平<95%将大大减少这种入侵黄蜂对本地物种的捕食压力和竞争性相互作用。然而，预计转基因害虫的长期存在将影响使用基因驱动来控制害虫的道德和可能性，特别是考虑到转基因黄蜂最终会被运回其栖息地。