Many natural disturbances have a strong climate forcing, and concern is rising about how ecosystems will respond to disturbance regimes to which they are not adapted. Novelty can arise either as attributes of the disturbance regime (e.g., frequency, severity, duration) shift beyond their historical ranges of variation or as new disturbance agents not present historically emerge. How much novelty ecological systems can absorb and whether changing disturbance regimes will lead to novel outcomes is determined by the ecological responses of communities, which are also subject to change. Powerful conceptual frameworks exist for anticipating consequences of novel disturbance regimes, but these remain challenging to apply in real-world settings. Nonlinear relationships (e.g., tipping points, feedbacks) are of particular concern because of their disproportionate effects. Future research should quantify the rise of novelty in disturbance regimes and assess the capacity of ecosystems to respond to these changes. Novel disturbance regimes will be potent catalysts for ecological change.

中文翻译：

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新的干扰机制和生态反应

许多自然扰动都会产生强烈的气候强迫，人们越来越担心生态系统将如何应对它们不适应的扰动机制。当扰动机制的属性（例如，频率、严重性、持续时间）超出其历史变化范围时，或者当历史上不存在的新扰动因素出现时，就会出现新颖性。生态系统能够吸收多少新奇事物以及改变扰动模式是否会带来新奇的结果取决于群落的生态反应，而群落的生态反应也会发生变化。存在强大的概念框架来预测新的干扰机制的后果，但这些框架在现实世界中应用仍然具有挑战性。非线性关系（例如，临界点、反馈）因其不成比例的影响而受到特别关注。未来的研究应该量化干​​扰机制中新奇事物的出现，并评估生态系统应对这些变化的能力。新的干扰机制将成为生态变化的有力催化剂。