Agricultural commodity production is a major driver of tropical deforestation and biodiversity loss. Natural rubber from Hevea brasiliensis, a valuable commodity without viable substitutes, has recently been included in the European Union (EU) deforestation regulation that aims to halt imports of goods containing embedded deforestation. Sustained growth in demand for rubber is driven by increasing tire production, caused by rising transport flows and personal car ownership. We show that average natural rubber yields remain static, meaning 2.7–5.3 million ha of additional plantations could be needed by 2030 to meet demand. A systematic literature search identified 106 case studies concerning transitions to and from rubber, revealing that substantial rubber plantation area expansion since 2010 has occurred at the expense of natural forest. Eliminating deforestation from rubber supply chains requires support for millions of smallholder growers to maintain or increase production from existing plantations, without land or water degradation. Supply chain traceability efforts offer opportunities to deliver such support. While the inclusion of rubber in EU legislation is a positive step, it is critical to ensure that smallholders are not marginalized to avoid exacerbating poverty, and that other markets follow suit to avoid displacement of rubber-driven deforestation to unregulated markets.

中文翻译：

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将橡胶纳入零森林砍伐立法是必要的，但不足以减少对生物多样性的影响

农产品生产是热带森林砍伐和生物多样性丧失的主要驱动因素。来自巴西橡胶树的天然橡胶是一种没有可行替代品的宝贵商品，最近已被纳入欧盟 (EU) 森林砍伐法规，旨在停止进口含有嵌入式森林砍伐的商品。橡胶需求的持续增长是由轮胎产量增加推动的，而轮胎产量的增加是由于运输流量和个人汽车拥有量的增加而导致的。我们发现，平均天然橡胶产量保持不变，这意味着到 2030 年可能需要增加 2.7-530 万公顷的种植园才能满足需求。系统性文献检索发现了 106 个有关向橡胶转型和从橡胶转型的案例研究，揭示了自 2010 年以来橡胶种植园面积的大幅扩张是以牺牲天然林为代价的。消除橡胶供应链中的森林砍伐需要支持数百万小农种植者维持或增加现有种植园的产量，同时避免土地或水的退化。供应链可追溯性工作提供了提供此类支持的机会。虽然将橡胶纳入欧盟立法是积极的一步，但至关重要的是要确保小农不被边缘化，以避免加剧贫困，并确保其他市场效仿，以避免橡胶导致的森林砍伐转移到不受监管的市场。