Conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs, which link transfers to investment in human capital in poor families, have spread around the world over the past two decades. This paper studies the medium-term effects of Progresa, the pioneering Mexican CCT program, on fertility using nationwide vital statistics combined with administrative data on program receipt. The effects of CCTs are likely to vary by age of the woman, and we study impacts by five-year age intervals. We test and account for possible underreporting of births using indirect methods. We find that Progresa led to an important and statistically significant decline in teenage fertility and smaller, but still significant, effects on reducing the fertility of older women.

中文翻译：

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有条件现金转移会降低生育率吗？来自墨西哥的全国证据

有条件现金转移支付（CCT）计划将转移支付与贫困家庭的人力资本投资联系起来，在过去二十年中已在世界各地推广。本文利用全国人口动态统计数据并结合项目接收的行政数据，研究了墨西哥开创性 CCT 项目 Progresa 对生育率的中期影响。CCT 的效果可能会因女性的年龄而异，我们以五年的年龄间隔研究影响。我们使用间接方法测试并解释可能的出生漏报情况。我们发现，Progresa 导致青少年生育率显着下降，并在统计上显着下降，而对老年女性生育率下降的影响虽然较小，但仍然显着。