Worldwide, children are enrolled in primary school in greater numbers than ever before. Nonetheless, school dropout rates are significant in many countries. A crucial factor in a child's education and potential for leaving school is their family's economic insecurity. Low-income households, in particular, are highly sensitive to food prices, and increases in the cost of food staples can force families to sacrifice education to smooth food consumption. While earlier studies have relied on aggregate measures of economic conditions or are restricted to single countries and limited time periods, we take an individual approach and examine how education is affected by local food price volatility. Empirically, we combine individual-level data on school dropout from 40 Demographic and Health Surveys in 14 sub-Saharan African countries between 1992 and 2020 with geo-referenced data on consumer food prices at local markets from the World Food Programme. Our results show that children are up to 8 percent more likely to drop out when local food prices sharply increase. Notably, this effect is strongest for older children, especially for boys. This demonstrates that economic instability during childhood can have long-run adverse effects on individuals and has important implications for understanding the human capital costs of income crises.

中文翻译：

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撒哈拉以南非洲当地食品价格波动和辍学率

在世界范围内，进入小学的儿童人数比以往任何时候都多。尽管如此，许多国家的辍学率仍然很高。影响孩子教育和辍学可能性的一个关键因素是家庭的经济不安全感。尤其是低收入家庭，对食品价格高度敏感，主食成本的上涨可能迫使家庭牺牲教育来平稳食品消费。虽然早期的研究依赖于经济状况的总体衡量，或者仅限于单个国家和有限的时间段，但我们采取个体方法并研究教育如何受到当地粮食价格波动的影响。根据经验，我们将 1992 年至 2020 年间 14 个撒哈拉以南非洲国家 40 项人口和健康调查中的个人辍学数据与世界粮食计划署提供的当地市场消费食品价格地理参考数据结合起来。我们的研究结果显示，当当地食品价格大幅上涨时，儿童辍学的可能性会增加 8%。值得注意的是，这种影响对于年龄较大的儿童尤其是男孩来说最为强烈。这表明，童年时期的经济不稳定可能对个人产生长期的不利影响，并对理解收入危机的人力资本成本具有重要意义。值得注意的是，这种影响对于年龄较大的儿童尤其是男孩来说最为强烈。这表明，童年时期的经济不稳定可能会对个人产生长期的不利影响，并对理解收入危机的人力资本成本具有重要意义。值得注意的是，这种影响对于年龄较大的儿童尤其是男孩来说最为强烈。这表明，童年时期的经济不稳定可能会对个人产生长期的不利影响，并对理解收入危机的人力资本成本具有重要意义。