The global surge in energy costs poses a significant obstacle for the attainment of price stability by the central banks across the world. This obstacle is further magnified for the economies that adopt an inflation-targeting framework and a flexible exchange rate regime. To overcome this challenge, our study attempts to answer whether inflation targeting can achieve price stability if an exchange rate pass-through exists, especially in the presence of energy price shocks. The study uses secondary data from twenty-one inflation-targeting economies for the period 1997-2020 and applies the non-linear autoregressive distributive lag (NARDL) model to test the hypotheses empirically, considering the possible asymmetries. The results confirm that exchange rate depreciation increases domestic price levels, while exchange rate appreciation reduces them in the long run. The study also finds that rising energy prices contribute to higher inflation in inflation-targeting economies. These findings suggest that inflation-targeting economies face a serious challenge in maintaining their core price stability goal due to exchange rate pass-through especially during energy price shocks. The results invite authorities of IT economies to re-evaluate their policy framework that conveniently ignores exchange rate pass-through by requiring a mandatory floating exchange rate regime.

全球能源成本的飙升对世界各国央行实现价格稳定构成了重大障碍。对于采用通胀目标框架和灵活汇率制度的经济体而言，这一障碍会进一步放大。为了克服这一挑战，我们的研究试图回答通货膨胀是否如果存在汇率传递效应，目标设定可以实现价格稳定，尤其是在存在能源价格冲击的情况下。该研究使用 1997 年至 2020 年期间 21 个通货膨胀目标经济体的二手数据，并应用非线性自回归分配滞后 (NARDL) 模型对假设进行实证检验，同时考虑可能的不对称性。结果证实，从长远来看，汇率贬值会提高国内价格水平，而汇率升值会降低国内价格水平。该研究还发现，能源价格上涨导致通货膨胀目标经济体的通货膨胀率上升。这些发现表明，由于汇率传导，特别是在能源价格冲击期间，通货膨胀目标经济体在维持其核心价格稳定目标方面面临严峻挑战。