The electrification of public transit is one of the key actions in the transportation sector. This study proposed an innovative framework for analyzing the effectiveness and emission reduction potential of electrifying transit policies. The future energy consumption, GHG emissions, and pollutant emissions of bus fleets in representative Canadian cities were analyzed. Under the high oil price scenarios, this study incorporated the upfront infrastructure costs, the social costs of pollution, and the dynamics of carbon prices and fuel prices, allowing for a comprehensive analysis of carbon reduction costs during transition. Compared to the BAU scenarios, the cumulative GHG emissions from 2019 to 2030 of bus fleet in ESD scenarios in Toronto, Montreal, Edmonton, and Halifax had a reduction of 18.7 %, 30.1 %, 21.3 % and 34.6 %, respectively. The findings have implications for the trade-off management of climate policies at the provincial level and can help understand polycentric governance from multiple resource perspectives.

公共交通电气化是交通部门的关键行动之一。本研究提出了一个创新框架，用于分析电气化交通政策的有效性和减排潜力。分析了加拿大代表性城市公交车队的未来能源消耗、温室气体排放和污染物排放。在高油价情景下，这项研究结合了前期基础设施成本、污染的社会成本以及碳价和燃料价格的动态，从而可以全面分析转型期间的碳减排成本。与BAU情景相比，多伦多、蒙特利尔、埃德蒙顿和哈利法克斯ESD情景公交车队2019-2030年累计温室气体排放量分别减少18.7%、30.1%、21.3%和34.6%。