Energy prices increased several folds due to the 2010 Iranian Energy Subsidy Reform. This study assesses the impact of the reform on the performance of the manufacturing sector using a detailed micro-panel dataset at the 4-digit ISIC level for the period 2009 to 2013. Since the reform universally affected all firms, the analysis relies on a quasi-experimental framework implementing first an explorative before-after design with structural fixed-effects and second a difference-in-difference analysis exploiting the energy-sensitivity of the studied firm-groups. The subsidy reform reduced output and value-added by 3 and 7%, respectively. Profits decreased by nearly 9%. Heterogeneity analyses show that the manufacturing sector has been affected through three channels: increasing costs of direct energy inputs, pass-through costs for inputs from upstream firms and an energy-price-induced demand contraction. We conclude that for successfully implementing an energy subsidy reform while maintaining growth in the manufacturing sector, direct and indirect costs have to be considered. Importantly, the results can inform expected energy reforms to mitigate climate change.

由于 2010 年伊朗能源补贴改革，能源价格上涨了数倍。本研究使用 2009 年至 2013 年期间 4 位 ISIC 级别的详细微面板数据集评估改革对制造业绩效的影响。由于改革普遍影响所有公司，因此分析依赖于准- 实验框架首先实施具有结构固定效应的探索性前后设计，其次实施利用所研究公司群体的能量敏感性的差异分析。补贴改革使产出和增加值分别下降了 3% 和 7%。利润下降近9%。异质性分析表明，制造业通过三个渠道受到影响：直接能源投入成本增加，上游企业投入的转嫁成本和能源价格引起的需求收缩。我们的结论是，要在保持制造业增长的同时成功实施能源补贴改革，必须考虑直接和间接成本。重要的是，这些结果可以为预期的能源改革提供信息，以缓解气候变化。