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Safe and just Earth system boundaries
Nature ( IF 50.5 ) Pub Date : 2023-05-31 , DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06083-8
Johan Rockström 1, 2, 3 , Joyeeta Gupta 4, 5 , Dahe Qin 6, 7, 8 , Steven J Lade 3, 9, 10 , Jesse F Abrams 11 , Lauren S Andersen 1 , David I Armstrong McKay 3, 11, 12 , Xuemei Bai 10 , Govindasamy Bala 13 , Stuart E Bunn 14 , Daniel Ciobanu 3 , Fabrice DeClerck 15, 16 , Kristie Ebi 17 , Lauren Gifford 18 , Christopher Gordon 19 , Syezlin Hasan 14 , Norichika Kanie 20 , Timothy M Lenton 11 , Sina Loriani 1 , Diana M Liverman 18 , Awaz Mohamed 21 , Nebojsa Nakicenovic 22 , David Obura 23 , Daniel Ospina 9 , Klaudia Prodani 4 , Crelis Rammelt 4 , Boris Sakschewski 1 , Joeri Scholtens 4 , Ben Stewart-Koster 14 , Thejna Tharammal 24 , Detlef van Vuuren 25, 26 , Peter H Verburg 27, 28 , Ricarda Winkelmann 1, 29 , Caroline Zimm 22 , Elena M Bennett 30, 31 , Stefan Bringezu 32 , Wendy Broadgate 9 , Pamela A Green 33 , Lei Huang 34 , Lisa Jacobson 9 , Christopher Ndehedehe 14, 35 , Simona Pedde 9, 36 , Juan Rocha 3, 9 , Marten Scheffer 37 , Lena Schulte-Uebbing 25, 38 , Wim de Vries 38 , Cunde Xiao 6, 39 , Chi Xu 40 , Xinwu Xu 7, 8 , Noelia Zafra-Calvo 41 , Xin Zhang 42
Affiliation  

The stability and resilience of the Earth system and human well-being are inseparably linked1,2,3, yet their interdependencies are generally under-recognized; consequently, they are often treated independently4,5. Here, we use modelling and literature assessment to quantify safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for climate, the biosphere, water and nutrient cycles, and aerosols at global and subglobal scales. We propose ESBs for maintaining the resilience and stability of the Earth system (safe ESBs) and minimizing exposure to significant harm to humans from Earth system change (a necessary but not sufficient condition for justice)4. The stricter of the safe or just boundaries sets the integrated safe and just ESB. Our findings show that justice considerations constrain the integrated ESBs more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading. Seven of eight globally quantified safe and just ESBs and at least two regional safe and just ESBs in over half of global land area are already exceeded. We propose that our assessment provides a quantitative foundation for safeguarding the global commons for all people now and into the future.



中文翻译:

安全公正的地球系统边界

地球系统的稳定性和复原力与人类福祉密不可分1,2,3,但它们的相互依赖性普遍未被充分认识;因此,他们常常被独立对待4,5。在这里,我们使用建模和文献评估来量化全球和亚全球范围内气候、生物圈、水和养分循环以及气溶胶的安全和公正的地球系统边界(ESB)。我们提出 ESB 来维持地球系统的弹性和稳定性(安全 ESB),并最大限度地减少地球系统变化对人类造成的重大伤害(正义的必要但非充分条件)4。安全或公正边界中较严格的一个设置了集成的安全和公正 ESB。我们的研究结果表明,与气候和大气气溶胶负荷的安全考虑相比,正义考虑对综合 ESB 的限制更大。八个全球量化的安全公正 ESB 中的七个以及全球一半以上土地面积中的至少两个区域安全公正 ESB 已经超标。我们建议,我们的评估为保护现在和未来所有人的全球公域提供了定量基础。

更新日期:2023-06-01
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