Quantifying the contributions from climate change and human activities on the water volume change of Lake Qinghai has practical significance for water resources management and adaptation to climate change in the high-altitude regions. In this paper, we explored the water volume change of Lake Qinghai, the climate change and land use change in the Lake Qinghai basin, and distinguished the contribution of the climate change and human activities on the water volume change. The results show that the water volume change of lake decreased significantly by 9.2km³ during 1975-2004 and increased by 6.3 km³ during 2005-2014. The climate in the Lake Qinghai is becoming warmer and more humid, and land use changes are very slight. Based on the SWAT model, the land use change, climate change and the combined effect of both contributed 1.15%, 98.8% and 0.05% to the evolution of surface runoff into lake. From the water balance perspective and multiple regression model, the contribution of surface runoff into the lake, lake precipitation and evaporation to the change of lake water volume change are 66.05%, 22.6%, and 11.35%, respectively. Therefore, the contribution of climate change to lake water volume change is 99.21%, while the contribution of human activities represented by land use changes is only 0.76%, which indicates that climate change has the dominant impact on the water volume change of Lake Qinghai.

量化气候变化和人类活动对青海湖水量变化的贡献，对于高海拔地区水资源管理和适应气候变化具有现实意义。本文探讨了青海湖水量变化、青海湖流域气候变化和土地利用变化，区分了气候变化和人类活动对水量变化的贡献。结果表明，1975-2004年湖泊水量变化显着减少9.2km ³，增加6.3km ³2005-2014 年期间。青海湖气候变暖湿润，土地利用变化很小。基于SWAT模型，土地利用变化、气候变化及其共同作用对地表径流入湖演化的贡献分别为1.15%、98.8%和0.05%。从水量平衡和多元回归模型来看，入湖地表径流、湖泊降水和蒸发对湖泊水量变化的贡献率分别为66.05%、22.6%和11.35%。因此，气候变化对湖泊水量变化的贡献度为99.21%，而以土地利用变化为代表的人类活动贡献度仅为0.76%，说明气候变化对青海湖水量变化的影响占主导地位。