This study investigates the asymmetric linkage between oil price and current account balance (CAB) in ten oil-importing emerging countries by employing a unique “Quantile-on-Quantile” methodology. The estimations reveal that the oil price is adversely related to CAB in selected economies at various quantiles of data distribution. The findings suggest that the impact of oil prices on CAB is asymmetric, with increases having a more significant negative effect than decreases having a positive effect. Furthermore, the effect of oil prices on CAB is more significant for net oil importers that have a higher dependency on oil imports. Finally, the findings highlight the need for policymakers in oil-importing countries to recognize the non-linear relationship between oil prices and CAB.

本研究采用独特的“分位数对分位数”方法，调查了十个石油进口新兴国家的油价与经常账户余额 (CAB) 之间的不对称联系。估计显示，在不同数据分布分位数的选定经济体中，油价与 CAB 呈负相关。研究结果表明，油价对 CAB 的影响是不对称的，上涨的负面影响比下跌的正面影响更显着。此外，对于石油进口依存度较高的石油净进口国，油价对 CAB 的影响更为显着。最后，研究结果强调石油进口国的决策者需要认识到油价与 CAB 之间的非线性关系。