This paper investigates the implications of uncertainty in the oil and gas sector for the dynamics of the price-cost markup at the business cycle frequency. We estimate a structural VAR model using U.S. quarterly data for the period 1982q2:2018q4, and find that an increase in oil uncertainty reduces the measured price-cost markup and economic activities. This result is consistent with the prediction of a calibrated New-Keynesian model with oil uncertainty shocks. These findings also provide insights into the relevance of the markup as a transmission channel of oil uncertainty.

中文翻译：

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石油不确定性和价格成本加成：来自美国数据的证据

本文研究了石油和天然气行业的不确定性对商业周期频率下价格成本加成动态的影响。我们使用 1982 年第 2 季度：2018 年第 4 季度的美国季度数据估算结构 VAR 模型，发现石油不确定性的增加降低了衡量的价格成本加成和经济活动。该结果与具有石油不确定性冲击的校准新凯恩斯模型的预测一致。这些发现还提供了关于加价作为石油不确定性传输渠道的相关性的见解。