Recognizing the prolonged, uneven, and evolving nature of the Covid-19 pandemic, this study provides one of the first dynamic, multilevel perspectives of women's fertility intentions in response to the pandemic and its multifaceted impacts. We examine how evolving individual- and community-level Covid-19 risk mechanisms and socioeconomic and life-course conditions are associated with continuity and change in women's fertility intentions. We combine individual-level panel data from a population-based sample of women aged 18–34 in Pernambuco, Brazil in 2020 and 2021 with corresponding administrative data from 94 municipalities. We use multinomial logit regressions to model continuity and change in fertility intentions across waves. We then estimate fixed effect models to highlight the time-varying determinants of changing fertility intentions while accounting for unobserved, time-invariant individual factors. We find that high and/or increasing individual and community-level Covid-19 exposure is associated with a greater likelihood of abandoning initial childbearing plans and a greater likelihood to maintain intentions to forego versus to intend having additional children. We advance the literature by highlighting how individual-level Covid-19 infection risk perceptions matter for fertility intentions, net of community-level exposure, and the necessity of dynamic perspectives for understanding how fertility intentions have changed (or not) in response to the pandemic.

中文翻译：

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Covid-19 大流行期间的生育意愿：个人和市级决定因素分析

认识到 Covid-19 大流行的长期、不平衡和不断演变的性质，这项研究提供了女性生育意图应对大流行及其多方面影响的第一个动态、多层次视角之一。我们研究了不断发展的个人和社区层面的 Covid-19 风险机制以及社会经济和生命历程条件如何与女性生育意愿的连续性和变化相关联。我们将 2020 年和 2021 年巴西伯南布哥州 18-34 岁女性人口样本的个人层面面板数据与来自 94 个城市的相应行政数据相结合。我们使用多项逻辑回归来模拟跨波生育意图的连续性和变化。然后，我们估计固定效应模型以强调改变生育意愿的随时间变化的决定因素，同时考虑未观察到的、不随时间变化的个体因素。我们发现，较高和/或增加的个人和社区级别的 Covid-19 暴露与放弃最初生育计划的可能性更大以及保持放弃意图而不是打算生育更多孩子的可能性更大有关。我们通过强调个人​​层面的 Covid-19 感染风险认知对生育意向的影响、社区层面的接触净值以及动态视角的必要性来推进文献，以了解生育意向如何因大流行而发生变化（或不发生变化） . 我们发现，较高和/或增加的个人和社区级别的 Covid-19 暴露与放弃最初生育计划的可能性更大以及保持放弃意图而不是打算生育更多孩子的可能性更大有关。我们通过强调个人​​层面的 Covid-19 感染风险认知对生育意向的影响、社区层面的接触净值以及动态视角的必要性来推进文献，以了解生育意向如何因大流行而发生变化（或不发生变化） . 我们发现，较高和/或增加的个人和社区级别的 Covid-19 暴露与放弃最初生育计划的可能性更大以及保持放弃意图而不是打算生育更多孩子的可能性更大有关。我们通过强调个人​​层面的 Covid-19 感染风险认知对生育意向的影响、社区层面的接触净值以及动态视角的必要性来推进文献，以了解生育意向如何因大流行而发生变化（或不发生变化） .