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Good guesses as accuracy-specificity tradeoffs
Philosophical Studies ( IF 1.1 ) Pub Date : 2023-05-15 , DOI: 10.1007/s11098-022-01915-1
Mattias Skipper

Guessing is a familiar activity, one we engage in when we are uncertain of the answer to a question under discussion. It is also an activity that lends itself to normative evaluation: some guesses are better than others. The question that interests me here is what makes for a good guess. In recent work, Dorst and Mandelkern have argued that good guesses are distinguished from bad ones by how well they optimize a tradeoff between accuracy and specificity. Here I argue that Dorst and Mandelkern’s implementation of this idea fails to satisfy some plausible constraints on good guesses, and I develop an alternative implementation that satisfies the relevant constraints. The result is a new account of good guesses which retains the positive aspects of Dorst and Mandelkern’s proposal, but without the drawbacks.



中文翻译:

作为准确度-特异性权衡的好猜测

猜测是一种熟悉的活动,当我们不确定所讨论问题的答案时,我们就会进行猜测。这也是一种有助于规范评估的活动:一些猜测比其他猜测更好。在这里让我感兴趣的问题是什么是一个好的猜测。在最近的工作中,Dorst 和 Mandelkern 认为,好猜测与坏猜测的区别在于它们如何优化准确性特异性之间的权衡. 在这里,我认为 Dorst 和 Mandelkern 对这个想法的实施未能满足对良好猜测的一些似是而非的限制,并且我开发了一个满足相关限制的替代实施。结果是对良好猜测的新解释,它保留了 Dorst 和 Mandelkern 提议的积极方面,但没有缺点。

更新日期:2023-05-15
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