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The relative response of Russian National Wealth Fund to oil demand, supply and risk shocks
Energy Economics ( IF 13.6 ) Pub Date : 2023-05-13 , DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106724
Kazi Sohag , M. Kabir Hassan , Irina Kalina , Oleg Mariev

The current economic and political environment requires a rapid government response in managing the external and internal effects of economic shocks. Russian economy substantially relies on hydrocarbon revenue, thus the government formed National Wealth Fund (NWF) as a macroprudential instrument to mitigate the adverse effect of the global energy market. To this end, we utilise the Cross-Quantilogram framework to analyse the response of the NWF to Oil Demand, Supply and Risk Shocks ranging from 13 July 2012 until 30 June 2022. To decompose oil market shocks, we follow the new Ready (2018) identification methodology. We also establish the channels of possible responsiveness of NWF to structural oil shocks. Our empirical investigation demonstrates the NWF of Russia is highly anchored with oil market shocks. Specifically, NWF positively responds to Oil Demand Shock at the lower to the median quantiles of demand-side shock and low quantiles of National Wealth Fund. The negative responsiveness of the NWF of Russia to the Oil Supply Shock is profound at the higher quantiles of NWF and the least quantile of a supply shock. Finally, Oil Risk Shock affects negatively to NWF. The robust findings of the study may be used to derive important policy implications for utilising the NWF and regulating Russia's economic stability.



中文翻译:

俄罗斯国家财富基金对石油需求、供应和风险冲击的相对反应

当前的经济和政治环境要求政府在管理经济冲击的外部和内部影响方面做出快速反应。俄罗斯经济在很大程度上依赖碳氢化合物收入,因此政府成立了国家财富基金 (NWF) 作为宏观审慎工具,以减轻全球能源市场的不利影响。为此,我们利用交叉数量图框架来分析 NWF 对 2012 年 7 月 13 日至 2022 年 6 月 30 日期间石油需求、供应和风险冲击的反应。为了分解石油市场冲击,我们遵循新的 Ready (2018)识别方法。我们还建立了 NWF 对结构性石油冲击的可能反应渠道。我们的实证调查表明,俄罗斯的 NWF 高度依赖于石油市场冲击。具体来说,NWF 在需求方冲击的较低分位数和国家财富基金的较低分位数中积极应对石油需求冲击。俄罗斯 NWF 对石油供应冲击的负面反应在 NWF 的较高分位数和供应冲击的最小分位数上是深远的。最后,石油风险冲击对 NWF 产生负面影响。该研究的有力发现可用于得出对利用 NWF 和调节俄罗斯经济稳定的重要政策影响。

更新日期:2023-05-17
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