This paper brings a new perspective to the population growth implications of the low fertility levels of European countries. For years between 2009 and 2018, whether constant fertility, mortality, and net migration would generate long-run population growth or population decrease is indicated simply and visually by comparison of the total fertility rate (TFR) to a migration-adjusted replacement level. The results show that, when considered in combination with concurrent net migration and mortality, the population growth implication of low fertility varies between countries and over time. For Sweden, Luxembourg, Belgium, and the United Kingdom for all the years considered the fertility–mortality–migration combination is coherent with long-run population growth. For the former two countries, long-run population growth would be sustained by net migration at current levels even if fertility were to fall to very low levels. In contrast, for every Eastern European country and year considered, unchanged fertility–mortality–migration combination would lead to population decrease. The need for an alternative view of low fertility in terms of whether the TFR is above or below a migration-adjusted replacement level and the need for a migration context-specific view, as distinct from a universal best view, of the desirability of fertility level are discussed.

中文翻译：

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欧洲国家生育率与更替水平之间关系变化的另类视角

本文为欧洲国家低生育水平对人口增长的影响带来了新的视角。2009年至2018年间，通过总生育率（TFR）与移民调整后的更替水平的比较，可以简单直观地表明恒定的生育率、死亡率和净移民是否会导致长期人口增长或人口减少。结果表明，当结合同时发生的净移民和死亡率考虑时，低生育率对人口增长的影响因国家和时间而异。对于瑞典、卢森堡、比利时和英国来说，多年来，生育率-死亡率-移民组合与长期人口增长是一致的。对于前两国来说，即使生育率降至非常低的水平，当前水平的净移民也能维持长期人口增长。相比之下，对于每一个东欧国家和年份，生育率、死亡率、移民组合不变都会导致人口减少。需要对低生育率有另一种看法，即总生育率是否高于或低于经移民调整的更替水平，以及需要根据移民情况对生育水平的理想性提出不同于普遍最佳观点的看法进行了讨论。