This paper estimates the causal impact of short-term aggregate fluctuations in Egypt, 1911–48, using global cotton price shocks. Firm entry was procyclical, and exit was acyclical. There were persistent differences between cohorts over the cycle; expansionary cohorts were of lower quality. The evidence supports models of firm entry with ex-ante heterogeneity. The findings highlight the extensive margin of entry as the primary adjustment mechanism. As a result, recessions had a strong “isolation” effect. This nature of firm entry amplified and propagated temporary price shocks.

中文翻译：

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商业周期条件对企业动态和组成的影响

本文使用全球棉花价格冲击估算了 1911-48 年埃及短期总体波动的因果影响。公司进入是顺周期的，退出是非周期的。在整个周期中，队列之间存在持续差异；扩张队列的质量较低。证据支持具有事前异质性的企业进入模型。调查结果强调了广泛的进入幅度是主要的调整机制。结果，经济衰退产生了强烈的“孤立”效应。企业进入的这种性质放大并传播了暂时的价格冲击。