In many Western societies, the current 'native' majority will become a numerical minority sometime within the next century. How does prospective demographic change affect existing group boundaries? An influential recent article by Abascal (2020) showed that white Americans under demographic threat reacted with boundary contraction—that is, they were less likely to classify ambiguously white people as 'white.' The present study examines the generalizability of these findings beyond the American context. Specifically, we test whether informing Germans about the projected decline of the 'native' population without migration background affects the classification of phenotypically ambiguous individuals. Our results show that information about demographic change neither affects the definition of group boundaries nor generates negative feelings toward minority outgroups. These findings point to the relevance of contextual differences in shaping the conditions under which demographic change triggers group threat and boundary shifts.

中文翻译：

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德国的人口变化和群体边界：预计人口下降对具有移民背景的人的看法的影响

在许多西方社会中，当前的“本土”多数人将在下个世纪的某个时间变成少数人。预期的人口变化如何影响现有的群体边界？Abascal (2020) 最近发表的一篇颇具影响力的文章表明，受到人口威胁的美国白人会做出边界收缩的反应——也就是说，他们不太可能将含糊不清的白人归类为“白人”。本研究检验了这些发现在美国背景之外的普遍性。具体来说，我们测试是否告知德国人有关没有迁移背景的“本地”人口的预计下降会影响表型模棱两可的个体的分类。我们的研究结果表明，关于人口变化的信息既不会影响群体边界的定义，也不会对少数群体产生负面情绪。这些发现指出了背景差异在塑造人口变化触发群体威胁和边界转变的条件方面的相关性。