Abstract

This article uses a novel database of Ottoman probates and examines some of the methodological difficulties that arise in very long-term analysis. Wealth statistics, spanning from 1460 to 1920 in the longest subsample, indicate approximately an inverted U-shaped pattern that may signal the limits of extensive growth. While plausible, severity of the drop on the right side of the wealth curve does not entirely match recent scholarship on the Ottoman Empire. Examining the effect of biases and changes in probate demography on wealth, we explore how real the observed wealth pattern is. We employ descriptive statistics, linear regression and Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition, and find that demographic composition matters but does not alter the shape of the wealth curve. Explanation for the gap between probate findings and current historiography, therefore, must lie elsewhere.

摘要

本文使用了一个新颖的奥斯曼帝国遗嘱认证数据库，并研究了在长期分析中出现的一些方法上的困难。在最长的子样本中，从1460年到1920年的财富统计数据表明，近似呈倒U形的格局可能标志着广泛增长的极限。尽管合理，但财富曲线右侧下降的严重程度并不完全与最近奥斯曼帝国时期的学术研究相吻合。研究偏见和遗嘱认证人口变化对财富的影响，我们探索了观察到的财富模式的真实性。我们采用描述性统计，线性回归和Oaxaca-Blinder分解，发现人口构成很重要，但不会改变财富曲线的形状。因此，要对遗嘱认证书的发现与当前的史学之间的差距进行解释，