Background

Prior research suggests that United States governmental sources documenting the number of law-enforcement-related deaths (i.e., fatalities due to injuries inflicted by law enforcement officers) undercount these incidents. The National Vital Statistics System (NVSS), administered by the federal government and based on state death certificate data, identifies such deaths by assigning them diagnostic codes corresponding to “legal intervention” in accordance with the International Classification of Diseases–10th Revision (ICD-10). Newer, nongovernmental databases track law-enforcement-related deaths by compiling news media reports and provide an opportunity to assess the magnitude and determinants of suspected NVSS underreporting. Our a priori hypotheses were that underreporting by the NVSS would exceed that by the news media sources, and that underreporting rates would be higher for decedents of color versus white, decedents in lower versus higher income counties, decedents killed by non-firearm (e.g., Taser) versus firearm mechanisms, and deaths recorded by a medical examiner versus coroner.

Methods and findings

We created a new US-wide dataset by matching cases reported in a nongovernmental, news-media-based dataset produced by the newspaper The Guardian, The Counted, to identifiable NVSS mortality records for 2015. We conducted 2 main analyses for this cross-sectional study: (1) an estimate of the total number of deaths and the proportion unreported by each source using capture–recapture analysis and (2) an assessment of correlates of underreporting of law-enforcement-related deaths (demographic characteristics of the decedent, mechanism of death, death investigator type [medical examiner versus coroner], county median income, and county urbanicity) in the NVSS using multilevel logistic regression. We estimated that the total number of law-enforcement-related deaths in 2015 was 1,166 (95% CI: 1,153, 1,184). There were 599 deaths reported in The Counted only, 36 reported in the NVSS only, 487 reported in both lists, and an estimated 44 (95% CI: 31, 62) not reported in either source. The NVSS documented 44.9% (95% CI: 44.2%, 45.4%) of the total number of deaths, and The Counted documented 93.1% (95% CI: 91.7%, 94.2%). In a multivariable mixed-effects logistic model that controlled for all individual- and county-level covariates, decedents injured by non-firearm mechanisms had higher odds of underreporting in the NVSS than those injured by firearms (odds ratio [OR]: 68.2; 95% CI: 15.7, 297.5; p < 0.01), and underreporting was also more likely outside of the highest-income-quintile counties (OR for the lowest versus highest income quintile: 10.1; 95% CI: 2.4, 42.8; p < 0.01). There was no statistically significant difference in the odds of underreporting in the NVSS for deaths certified by coroners compared to medical examiners, and the odds of underreporting did not vary by race/ethnicity. One limitation of our analyses is that we were unable to examine the characteristics of cases that were unreported in The Counted.

Conclusions

The media-based source, The Counted, reported a considerably higher proportion of law-enforcement-related deaths than the NVSS, which failed to report a majority of these incidents. For the NVSS, rates of underreporting were higher in lower income counties and for decedents killed by non-firearm mechanisms. There was no evidence suggesting that underreporting varied by death investigator type (medical examiner versus coroner) or race/ethnicity.

中文翻译：

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量化美国生命统计和基于新闻媒体的数据源中与执法有关的死亡的漏报：捕获-捕获分析

背景

先前的研究表明，记录与执法相关的死亡人数（即因执法人员受伤造成的死亡）的美国政府资料低估了这些事件。由联邦政府管理的国家生命统计系统（NVSS）根据州死亡证书数据，通过根据国际疾病分类第十版（ICD- 10）。较新的非政府数据库通过编辑新闻媒体报道来跟踪与执法相关的死亡事件，并提供了一个机会来评估可疑的NVSS报告不足的程度和决定因素。我们的先验假设是，NVSS的漏报将超过新闻媒体的漏报，

方法和发现

我们通过匹配报纸《卫报》制作的基于非新闻，基于新闻媒体的数据集中报道的病例，创建了一个新的美国范围内的数据集（可计数的，可识别的NVSS死亡率记录）。我们对此横断面研究进行了2个主要分析：（1）使用捕获-再捕获分析估算死亡总数和每个来源未报告的比例，以及（2 ）使用多层Logistic回归对NVSS中与执法不相关的死亡报告不足（死者的人口统计学特征，死亡机制，死亡调查员类型[医学检查员与死因裁判官]，县中位数收入和县城市化程度）的相关性进行评估。我们估计，2015年与执法相关的死亡总数为1,166（95％CI：1,153，1,184）。仅《计数》中报告了599例死亡，仅NVSS报告了36例死亡，两个列表中均报告了487例死亡，两种来源均未报告估计有44例（95％CI：31，62）。NVSS记录了死亡总数的44.9％（95％CI：44.2％，45.4％），而The Counted记录了93.1％（95％CI：91.7％，94.2％）。在一个可控制所有个人和县级协变量的多变量混合效应逻辑模型中，非枪支机制伤害的后裔在NVSS中漏报的几率高于枪支伤害的后裔（赔率[OR]：68.2； 95） ％CI：15.7，297.5； MS。p <0.01），并且在收入最高的五分位数县以外的地区也发生漏报的可能性更高（收入最低的五分位数与收入最高的五分位数的比例为：10.1； 95％CI：2.4、42.8；p <0.01）。与体格检查者相比，由死因裁判官证实的死亡人数在NVSS中低报的几率没有统计学上的显着差异，并且低报几的几率没有因种族/民族而异。我们的分析的局限性在于我们无法检查《计数》中未报告的案件的特征。

结论

媒体来源《计数》报道的与执法相关的死亡人数要比NVSS高得多，而NVSS并未报道其中大部分事件。对于NVSS，低收入县和因非枪械机制杀害的死者的漏报率较高。没有证据表明漏报的情况因死亡调查人员的类型（医学检查员与死因裁判官）或种族/民族而异。