An emerging calcium looping process has been shown to be a promising alternative to solvent scrubbing, which is regarded as the most mature CO₂ capture technology. Its retrofits to coal-fired power plants have the potential to reduce both energy and economic penalties associated with the mature CO₂ capture technologies. However, these conclusions have been made based on the deterministic outputs of the economic models that have not considered uncertainties in the model inputs. Therefore, this study incorporates a stochastic approach into the economic analysis of the retrofit of such emerging CO₂ capture technology to the coal-fired power plant. The stochastic analysis revealed that levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) and specific total capital requirement were highly affected by the uncertainty in the input variables to the process and economic models. The most probable values for these key economic performance indicators were shown to fall between 75 and 115 €/MW_elh, and 2100 and 2300 €/kW_el,gross, respectively. Interestingly, the most probable LCOE values for the coal-fired power plant will fall between 50 and 150 €/MW_elh. This indicated that the calcium looping retrofit scenario can become economically favoured, mainly due to the high economic penalties incurred by unabated coal-fired power plant associated with carbon tax. Importantly, the outputs of the stochastic economic assessment aligned well with the deterministic results reported in the literature. As the latter were generated using different sets of assumptions regarding the process and economic models, the stochastic approach to the economic assessment can minimise the impact of the model assumptions on estimates of the key economic parameters. Moreover, by indicating the probability of particular outputs, as well as ranking the model input variables according to their influence on the key economic performance, such analysis would allow making more insightful decisions regarding further funding and development of the calcium looping process. Finally, use of the stochastic approach in the economic feasibility assessment enables a more profound and reliable comparison of the different calcium looping retrofit configurations, as well as benchmarking different CO₂ capture technologies.

新兴的钙环化工艺已被证明是溶剂洗涤的一种有前途的替代方法，后者被认为是最成熟的CO ₂捕集技术。其对燃煤电厂的改造具有减少与成熟的CO ₂捕集技术相关的能源和经济损失的潜力。但是，这些结论是根据经济模型的确定性输出得出的，该确定性输出未考虑模型输入中的不确定性。因此，本研究将随机方法纳入了对此类新兴CO ₂改造的经济分析中捕获技术到燃煤电厂。随机分析显示，过程和经济模型的输入变量的不确定性极大地影响了平均电力成本（LCOE）和特定的总资本需求。这些关键经济绩效指标的最可能值分别介于75和115€/ MW _el h，以及2100和2300€/ kW _{el，总值之间}。有趣的是，对于燃煤电厂的最可能的值LCOE将落入在50和150€/ MW之间_ELH。这表明，钙循环改造方案可能在经济上受到青睐，这主要是由于未减缓的燃煤电厂因征收碳税而遭受了高额的经济处罚。重要的是，随机经济评估的结果与文献报道的确定性结果吻合得很好。由于后者是使用有关过程和经济模型的不同假设集生成的，因此经济评估的随机方法可以最大程度地减少模型假设对关键经济参数估计值的影响。此外，通过指示特定输出的概率，并根据模型输入变量对关键经济绩效的影响来对模型输入变量进行排名，这样的分析将使您可以对钙循环过程的进一步资金和开发做出更有洞察力的决策。最后，在经济可行性评估中使用随机方法可以更深刻，更可靠地比较不同的钙循环改型配置，以及对不同的二氧化碳进行基准测试_2种捕获技术。