Transformative research (TR) statements in scientific grant proposals have become mainstream. However, TR is defined as radically changing our understanding of a concept, causing a paradigm shift, or opening new frontiers. We argue that it is rarely possible to predict the transformative nature of research. Interviews and surveys of 78 transformative ecologists suggest that most TR began with incremental goals, while transformative potential was recognized later. Most respondents thought TR is unpredictable and should not be prioritized over ‘incremental’ research that typically leads to breakthroughs. Importantly, TR directives might encourage scientists to overstate the importance of their research. We recommend that granting agencies (i) allocate only a subset of funds to TR and (ii) solicit more realistic proposal statements.

科学赠款提案中的变革性研究（TR）声明已成为主流。但是，TR的定义是从根本上改变我们对概念的理解，引起范式转变或开辟新的领域。我们认为，几乎不可能预测研究的变革性。对78位变革型生态学家的访谈和调查表明，大多数TR都始于渐进式目标，而后来发现了变革潜力。大多数受访者认为，TR是不可预测的，不应优先于通常会导致突破的“增量”研究。重要的是，TR指令可能会鼓励科学家夸大其研究的重要性。我们建议拨款机构（i）仅将部分资金分配给TR，并且（ii）征集更切合实际的提案声明。