As freshwater availability is crucial for securing a sustainable, lower‑carbon future, there is a critical connection between water management and climate policies. Under a rapidly changing climate, it is more important than ever to estimate the degree of future water security. This is a challenging task as it depends on many different variables: the degree of warming and its consequent effects on hydrological resources, the water demand by different sectors, and the possible ameliorations or deteriorations of the effects due to climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. A simple and transparent conceptual framework has been developed to assess the European vulnerability to freshwater stress under the present hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions, in comparison to projections of future vulnerability for different degrees of global warming (1.5 °C, 2 °C and 4 °C), under the high-rate warming scenario (RCP8.5). Different levels of adaptation to climate change are considered in the framework, by employing various relevant pathways of socioeconomic development. A spatially detailed pan-European map of vulnerability to freshwater shortage has been developed at the local administrative level, making this approach extremely useful for supporting regional level policymaking and implementation and strategic planning against future freshwater stress.

中文翻译：

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高端气候变化下的淡水脆弱性。泛欧评估

由于淡水的供应对于确保可持续的低碳未来至关重要，因此水管理与气候政策之间存在着至关重要的联系。在瞬息万变的气候下，估计未来的水安全程度比以往任何时候都更为重要。这是一项具有挑战性的任务，因为它取决于许多不同的变量：变暖程度及其对水文资源的影响，不同部门的用水需求以及由于适应和缓解气候变化战略而可能导致的影响的改善或恶化。已经开发了一个简单透明的概念框架来评估欧洲在当前的水文气候和社会经济条件下对淡水压力的脆弱性，在高速升温情景（RCP8.5）下，与全球变暖程度不同（1.5°C，2°C和4°C）的未来脆弱性的预测相比。通过采用社会经济发展的各种相关途径，在框架中考虑了对气候变化的不同适应水平。已在地方行政级别上绘制了详细的泛欧脆弱性图，该图在地方行政级别上得到了发展，这使得该方法对于支持区域一级的决策，实施以及应对未来淡水压力的战略规划极为有用。