Glaciers in the high mountains of Asia (HMA) make a substantial contribution to the water supply of millions of people, and they are retreating and losing mass as a result of anthropogenic climate change at similar rates to those seen elsewhere. In the Paris Agreement of 2015, 195 nations agreed on the aspiration to limit the level of global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius ( °C) above pre-industrial levels. However, it is not known what an increase of 1.5 °C would mean for the glaciers in HMA. Here we show that a global temperature rise of 1.5 °C will lead to a warming of 2.1 ± 0.1 °C in HMA, and that 64 ± 7 per cent of the present-day ice mass stored in the HMA glaciers will remain by the end of the century. The 1.5 °C goal is extremely ambitious and is projected by only a small number of climate models of the conservative IPCC’s Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)2.6 ensemble. Projections for RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 reveal that much of the glacier ice is likely to disappear, with projected mass losses of 49 ± 7 per cent, 51 ± 6 per cent and 64 ± 5 per cent, respectively, by the end of the century; these projections have potentially serious consequences for regional water management and mountain communities.

中文翻译：

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全球气温上升1.5摄氏度对亚洲冰川的影响

亚洲高山 (HMA) 的冰川为数百万人的供水做出了重大贡献，并且由于人为气候变化，它们正在以与其他地方相似的速度消退和失去质量。在 2015 年的巴黎协定中，195 个国家同意将全球气温上升水平限制在比工业化前水平高 1.5 摄氏度 (°C) 的愿望。然而，尚不清楚 1.5 °C 的升高对 HMA 冰川意味着什么。在这里，我们表明，全球温度上升 1.5 °C 将导致 HMA 升温 2.1 ± 0.1 °C，并且到年底，储存在 HMA 冰川中的现有冰量的 64 ± 7% 将保留世纪。1. 5 °C 的目标非常雄心勃勃，仅由保守的 IPCC 代表性浓度路径 (RCP)2.6 集合的少数气候模型预测。RCP4.5、RCP6.0 和 RCP8.5 的预测显示大部分冰川冰可能会消失，预计质量损失分别为 49 ± 7%、51 ± 6% 和 64 ± 5%，到本世纪末；这些预测可能对区域水资源管理和山区社区产生严重后果。