The waters of the Southern Ocean are projected to warm over the coming century, with potential adverse consequences for native cold-adapted organisms. Warming waters have caused temperate marine species to shift their ranges poleward. The seafloor animals of the Southern Ocean shelf have long been isolated by the deep ocean surrounding Antarctica and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, with little scope for southward migration. How these largely endemic species will react to future projected warming is unknown. By considering 963 invertebrate species, we show that within the current century, warming temperatures alone are unlikely to result in wholesale extinction or invasion affecting Antarctic seafloor life. However, 79% of Antarctica’s endemic species do face a significant reduction in suitable temperature habitat (an average 12% reduction). Our findings highlight the species and regions most likely to respond significantly (negatively and positively) to warming and have important implications for future management of the region.

中文翻译：

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在未来一个世纪的南洋海底升温中，失败者胜于失败者

预计在未来的一个世纪中，南大洋的水域将变暖，这将对适应寒冷的本地生物产生潜在的不利影响。变暖的水域使温带海洋物种向极移。长期以来，南极大陆架的海底动物被南极洲和南极绕极洋流周围的深海所隔离，几乎没有向南迁移的空间。这些主要地方性物种将如何对未来预计的变暖作出反应尚不得而知。通过考虑963种无脊椎动物物种，我们表明，在当前世纪内，仅靠变暖就不太可能导致全面灭绝或入侵，从而影响南极海底生物。但是，南极洲的特有物种中有79％确实面临着适宜温度栖息地的显着减少（平均减少12％）。