Early environments can profoundly influence an organism in ways that persist over its life. In reptiles, early thermal environments (nest temperatures) can impact offspring phenotype and survival in important ways, yet we still lack an understanding of whether general trends exist and the magnitude of impact. Understanding these patterns is important in predicting how climate change will affect reptile populations and the role of phenotypic plasticity in buffering populations. We compiled data from 175 reptile studies to examine, and quantify, the effect of incubation temperature on phenotype and survival. Using meta‐analytic approaches (standardized mean difference between incubation treatments, Hedges' g), we show that across all trait types examined there is, on average, a moderate to large magnitude of effect of incubation temperatures (absolute effect: |g| = 0.75). Unsurprisingly, this influence was extremely large for incubation duration, as predicted, with warmer temperatures decreasing incubation time overall (g = −8.42). Other trait types, including behaviour, physiology, morphology, performance, and survival experienced reduced, but still mostly moderate to large effects, with particularly strong effects on survival. Moreover, the impact of incubation temperature persisted at least one‐year post‐hatching, suggesting that these effects have the potential to impact fitness in the long term. The magnitude of effect increased as the change in temperature increased (e.g. 6°C versus 2°C) in almost all cases, and tended to decrease when temperatures of the treatments fluctuated around a mean temperature compared to when they were constant. The effect also depended on the mid‐temperature of the comparison, but not in consistent ways, with some traits experiencing the greatest effects at extreme temperatures, while others did not. The highly heterogeneous nature of the effects we observe, along with a large amount of unexplained variability, indicates that the shape of reaction norms between phenotype and temperature, along with ecological and/or experimental factors, are important when considering general patterns. Our analyses provide new insights into the effects of incubation environments on reptile phenotype and survival and allow general, albeit coarse, predictions for taxa experiencing warming nest temperatures under climatic change.

中文翻译：

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爬行动物的发育温度和表型可塑性：系统评价和荟萃分析

早期环境可以以持续一生的方式对有机体产生深远的影响。在爬行动物中，早期的热环境（巢穴温度）可以以重要的方式影响后代的表型和生存，但我们仍然缺乏对总体趋势是否存在以及影响程度的了解。了解这些模式对于预测气候变化将如何影响爬行动物种群以及表型可塑性在缓冲种群中的作用非常重要。我们汇编了 175 项爬行动物研究的数据，以检查和量化孵化温度对表型和存活率的影响。使用元分析方法（孵化处理之间的标准化平均差异，Hedges' g），我们表明，在所有检查的性状类型中，平均而言，孵化温度的中等到大的影响（绝对影响：|g| = 0.75）。不出所料，正如预测的那样，这种影响对孵化时间的影响非常大，温度升高会减少总体孵化时间（g = -8.42）。其他特征类型，包括行为、生理学、形态学、表现和生存，经历了减少，但仍然主要是中度到大的影响，对生存的影响特别强烈。此外，孵化温度的影响在孵化后至少持续一年，这表明这些影响有可能长期影响健康。在几乎所有情况下，影响的幅度都随着温度变化的增加而增加（例如 6°C 对 2°C），与恒定温度相比，当处理温度在平均温度附近波动时趋于降低。这种影响还取决于比较的中间温度，但不是以一致的方式，某些性状在极端温度下受到的影响最大，而另一些则没有。我们观察到的效应的高度异质性，以及大量无法解释的变异性，表明表型和温度之间的反应规范的形状，以及生态和/或实验因素，在考虑一般模式时很重要。我们的分析为孵化环境对爬行动物表型和生存的影响提供了新的见解，并允许对气候变化下巢穴温度升高的分类群进行一般性的预测，尽管是粗略的。