A changing climate may directly or indirectly influence biological invasions by altering the likelihood of introduction or establishment, as well as modifying the geographic range, environmental impacts, economic costs or management of alien species. A comprehensive assessment of empirical and theoretical evidence identified how each of these processes is likely to be shaped by climate change for alien plants, animals and pathogens in terrestrial, freshwater and marine environments of Great Britain. The strongest contemporary evidence for the potential role of climate change in the establishment of new alien species is for terrestrial arthropods, as a result of their ectothermic physiology, often high dispersal rate and their strong association with trade as well as commensal relationships with human environments. By contrast, there is little empirical support for higher temperatures increasing the rate of alien plant establishment due to the stronger effects of residence time and propagule pressure. The magnitude of any direct climate effect on the number of new alien species will be small relative to human‐assisted introductions driven by socioeconomic factors. Casual alien species (sleepers) whose population persistence is limited by climate are expected to exhibit greater rates of establishment under climate change assuming that propagule pressure remains at least at current levels. Surveillance and management targeting sleeper pests and diseases may be the most cost‐effective option to reduce future impacts under climate change. Most established alien species will increase their distribution range in Great Britain over the next century. However, such range increases are very likely be the result of natural expansion of populations that have yet to reach equilibrium with their environment, rather than a direct consequence of climate change. To assess the potential realised range of alien species will require a spatially explicit approach that not only integrates bioclimatic suitability and population‐level demographic rates but also simulation of landscape‐level processes (e.g. dispersal, land‐use change, host/habitat distribution, non‐climatic edaphic constraints). In terms of invasive alien species that have known economic or biodiversity impacts, the taxa that are likely to be the most responsive are plant pathogens and insect pests of agricultural crops. However, the extent to which climate adaptation strategies lead to new crops, altered rotations, and different farming practices (e.g. irrigation, fertilization) will all shape the potential agricultural impacts of alien species. The greatest uncertainty in the effects of climate change on biological invasions exists with identifying the future character of new species introductions and predicting ecosystem impacts. Two complementary strategies may work under these conditions of high uncertainty: (i) prioritise ecosystems in terms of their perceived vulnerability to climate change and prevent ingress or expansion of alien species therein that may exacerbate problems; (ii) target those ecosystem already threatened by alien species and implement management to prevent the situation deteriorating under climate change.

中文翻译：

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气候变化和生物入侵：证据、期望和应对方案

气候变化可能通过改变引入或建立的可能性，以及改变地理范围、环境影响、经济成本或外来物种的管理，直接或间接影响生物入侵。对经验和理论证据的综合评估确定了气候变化如何影响英国陆地、淡水和海洋环境中外来植物、动物和病原体的每个过程。当代最有力的证据表明气候变化在建立新的外来物种方面的潜在作用是陆地节肢动物，因为它们具有变温生理学、通常高扩散率以及它们与贸易的密切联系以及与人类环境的共生关系。相比之下，由于停留时间和繁殖压力的影响更大，高温会增加外来植物的建立率，这几乎没有经验支持。相对于由社会经济因素驱动的人类辅助引入，任何对新外来物种数量的直接气候影响的幅度都较小。假设繁殖压力至少保持在当前水平，预计种群持久性受气候限制的临时外来物种（睡眠者）将在气候变化下表现出更高的定殖率。针对卧铺病虫害的监测和管理可能是减少未来气候变化影响的最具成本效益的选择。大多数已建立的外来物种将在下个世纪扩大其在英国的分布范围。然而，这种范围扩大很可能是尚未与环境达到平衡的人口自然扩张的结果，而不是气候变化的直接后果。评估外来物种的潜在实现范围将需要一种空间明确的方法，该方法不仅整合了生物气候适宜性和人口水平的人口统计率，而且还模拟了景观水平的过程（例如扩散、土地利用变化、寄主/栖息地分布、非-气候土壤限制）。就已知对经济或生物多样性产生影响的外来入侵物种而言，最敏感的分类群可能是农作物的植物病原体和害虫。然而，气候适应战略在多大程度上导致新作物、轮作改变和不同的耕作方式（例如 G。灌溉、施肥）都会影响外来物种对农业的潜在影响。气候变化对生物入侵影响的最大不确定性在于确定新物种引入的未来特征和预测生态系统影响。在这些高度不确定的条件下，两种互补的策略可能会奏效：(i) 优先考虑生态系统对气候变化的感知脆弱性，并防止可能加剧问题的外来物种进入或扩张；(ii) 针对已经受到外来物种威胁的生态系统，实施管理以防止气候变化导致情况恶化。气候变化对生物入侵影响的最大不确定性在于确定新物种引入的未来特征和预测生态系统影响。在这些高度不确定的条件下，两种互补的策略可能会奏效：(i) 优先考虑生态系统对气候变化的感知脆弱性，并防止可能加剧问题的外来物种进入或扩张；(ii) 针对已经受到外来物种威胁的生态系统，实施管理以防止气候变化导致情况恶化。气候变化对生物入侵影响的最大不确定性在于确定新物种引入的未来特征和预测生态系统影响。在这些高度不确定的条件下，两种互补的策略可能会奏效：(i) 优先考虑生态系统对气候变化的感知脆弱性，并防止可能加剧问题的外来物种进入或扩张；(ii) 针对已经受到外来物种威胁的生态系统，实施管理以防止气候变化导致情况恶化。(i) 优先考虑生态系统对气候变化的感知脆弱性，并防止可能加剧问题的外来物种进入或扩张；(ii) 针对已经受到外来物种威胁的生态系统，实施管理以防止气候变化导致情况恶化。(i) 优先考虑生态系统对气候变化的感知脆弱性，并防止可能加剧问题的外来物种进入或扩张；(ii) 针对已经受到外来物种威胁的生态系统，实施管理以防止气候变化导致情况恶化。