Ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM _2.5) are associated with premature human mortality^1,2,3,4; their future concentrations depend on changes in emissions, which dominate the near-term⁵, and on climate change^6,7. Previous global studies of the air-quality-related health effects of future climate change^8,9 used single atmospheric models. However, in related studies, mortality results differ among models^10,11,12. Here we use an ensemble of global chemistry–climate models¹³ to show that premature mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change, under the high greenhouse gas scenario RCP8.5 (ref. 14), is probably positive. We estimate 3,340 (−30,300 to 47,100) ozone-related deaths in 2030, relative to 2000 climate, and 43,600 (−195,000 to 237,000) in 2100 (14% of the increase in global ozone-related mortality). For PM _2.5, we estimate 55,600 (−34,300 to 164,000) deaths in 2030 and 215,000 (−76,100 to 595,000) in 2100 (countering by 16% the global decrease in PM _2.5-related mortality). Premature mortality attributable to climate change is estimated to be positive in all regions except Africa, and is greatest in India and East Asia. Most individual models yield increased mortality from climate change, but some yield decreases, suggesting caution in interpreting results from a single model. Climate change mitigation is likely to reduce air-pollution-related mortality.

地面臭氧和细颗粒物 (PM _2.5 ) 与人类过早死亡有关^1,2,3,4；它们未来的浓度取决于近期主导的排放变化⁵和气候变化^6,7。此前关于未来气候变化对空气质量相关健康影响的全球研究^8,9使用单一大气模型。然而，在相关研究中，不同模型的死亡率结果有所不同^10,11,12。在这里，我们使用全球化学-气候模型的集合¹³来表明，在高温室气体情景RCP8.5（参考文献14）下，气候变化导致的空气污染变化导致的过早死亡可能是积极的。我们估计，相对于 2000 年的气候，2030 年将有 3,340 人（-30,300 至 47,100 人）与臭氧相关的死亡，到 2100 年将有 43,600 人（-195,000 人至 237,000 人）（占全球臭氧相关死亡率增加的 14%）。对于 PM _{2.5 ，我们估计 2030 年将有 55,600 人（−34,300 至 164,000 人）死亡，2100 年将有 215,000 人（−76,100 至 595,000 人）死亡（与 PM 2.5}相关死亡率全球下降 16% 相比）。据估计，除非洲以外的所有地区，气候变化造成的过早死亡率均为正数，其中印度和东亚的死亡率最高。大多数单个模型得出的结论是气候变化导致的死亡率增加，但有些模型得出的结果却有所下降，这表明在解释单个模型的结果时要谨慎。减缓气候变化可能会降低与空气污染相关的死亡率。