The term “pathogen emergence” encompasses everything from previously unidentified viruses entering the human population to established pathogens invading new populations and the evolution of drug resistance. Mathematical models of emergent pathogens allow forecasts of case numbers, investigation of transmission mechanisms, and evaluation of control options. Yet, there are numerous limitations and pitfalls to their use, often driven by data scarcity. Growing availability of data on pathogen genetics and human ecology, coupled with computational and methodological innovations, is amplifying the power of models to inform the public health response to emergence events. Tighter integration of infectious disease models with public health practice and development of resources at the ready has the potential to increase the timeliness and quality of responses.

中文翻译：

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新发传染病建模的机遇和挑战

“病原体出现”一词涵盖了从先前未识别的病毒进入人类群体到已确定的病原体入侵新群体以及耐药性进化的所有内容。新出现的病原体的数学模型可以预测病例数、研究传播机制以及评估控​​制方案。然而，它们的使用存在许多限制和陷阱，通常是由于数据稀缺造成的。病原体遗传学和人类生态学数据的不断增加，加上计算和方法的创新，正在增强模型的力量，为公共卫生应对突发事件提供信息。将传染病模型与公共卫生实践以及现成资源的开发更紧密地结合起来，有可能提高应对措施的及时性和质量。