The US dollar's nominal effective exchange rate closely tracks global financial conditions, which themselves show a cyclical pattern. Over that cycle, world asset prices, leverage, and capital flows move in concert with global growth, especially influencing the fortunes of emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs). This paper documents that dollar appreciation shocks predict economic downturns in EMDEs and highlights policies countries could implement to dampen the effects of dollar fluctuations. Dollar appreciation shocks themselves are highly correlated not just with tighter US monetary policies but also with measures of US domestic and international dollar funding stress that themselves reflect global investors' risk appetite. After the initial market panic and upward dollar spike at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, the dollar fell as global financial conditions eased; but the higher inflation that followed has induced central banks everywhere to tighten monetary policies more recently. The dollar has strengthened considerably since mid-2021 and a contractionary phase of the global financial cycle is now underway. Owing to increases in public- and business-sector debts during the pandemic, a strong dollar, higher interest rates, and slower economic growth will be challenging for EMDEs.

美元的名义有效汇率密切跟踪全球金融状况，而全球金融状况本身就呈现出周期性模式。在此周期中，世界资产价格、杠杆和资本流动与全球增长同步变化，尤其影响新兴市场和发展中经济体 (EMDE) 的命运。本文记录了美元升值冲击预示着新兴市场和发展中经济体的经济衰退，并强调了各国可以采取的政策来抑制美元波动的影响。美元升值冲击本身不仅与美国紧缩的货币政策高度相关，而且与美国国内和国际美元融资压力的衡量标准高度相关，而这些衡量标准本身反映了全球投资者的风险偏好。在 COVID-19 大流行开始时最初的市场恐慌和美元上涨之后，随着全球金融状况的缓解，美元下跌；但随之而来的通胀上升促使各地央行最近收紧货币政策。自 2021 年中期以来，美元大幅走强，全球金融周期目前正处于收缩阶段。由于疫情期间公共和企业部门债务增加，美元走强、利率上升和经济增长放缓将给新兴市场经济体带来挑战。