The purpose of this article is to provide a case for advancing methods in Arctic shipping towards a more complete approach. A methods assessment was used to identify core concepts in Arctic shipping and to develop a modelling approach that integrates together policy, alternative fuels, emissions and microeconomic theory - enabling the exploration of financial and implicit damage costs, opportunities and environmental risks within Arctic shipping. The integration of these paradigms can lead to more detailed insights into the economic feasibility of Arctic routes under different policy scenarios. The results indicate that by 2035 under both a business as usual and an Arctic zero emission ECA policy scenario, combined Arctic-Suez transits becomes financially viable for a Handymax wet bulker with a moderate ice class. By 2050 the transpolar route becomes accessible for 5 months for these vessels. The results also show that implicit damage costs cannot be overlooked and that it is possible to advance towards more holistic methods for assessing economic and environmental risks and opportunities in Arctic shipping. Through the incorporation of these factors, this framework can be used to assist policymakers with maximising societal welfare.

本文的目的是提供一个案例，将北极航运的方法推向更完整的方法。方法评估用于确定北极航运的核心概念，并开发一种将政策、替代燃料、排放和微观经济理论整合在一起的建模方法，从而能够探索北极航运中的财务和隐性损害成本、机会和环境风险。这些范式的整合可以更详细地了解不同政策情景下北极航线的经济可行性。结果表明，到 2035 年，在一切照旧和北极零排放 ECA 政策情景下，北极-苏伊士的联合运输对于具有中等冰级的灵便型湿散货船来说在财务上是可行的。到 2050 年，这些船只可以使用 5 个月的跨极航线。结果还表明，隐性损害成本不容忽视，并且有可能采用更全面的方法来评估北极航运的经济和环境风险和机遇。通过结合这些因素，该框架可用于帮助决策者最大限度地提高社会福利。