Abstract

Droughts are one of the multidimensional extreme events that negatively influence agriculture, water availability and food security in the World. The Upper Indus Basin (UIB) is the major river system in the world that contributes 80% of the surface water availability in Pakistan. The objective of the current study is to analyze the spatial patterns of drought severity and magnitude using the standardized precipitation index and streamflow drought index. These drought indices were used to estimate the characteristics and a variation of the droughts annual, pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons for the period of 1991–2017. Results revealed that the northeastern side of the Upper Indus Basin was greatly influenced by the droughts as compared to the southwestern side. The duration from 1997 to 1998 was strongly correlated with El Nino and La Nina (ENSO) in a strong way. This type of ENSO indicates the severe drought for 5 years from 1998 to 2002 in the UIB. The episode of the warm water oceans mechanism was also strengthened in 1996, 1997, 1998, 2000, 2001 and 2002 drought years. La Nina effect has been observed in the wet and cold phase during the year of 1999. The study indicated the severe SDI drought in the years of 1991 and 2001. The study also indicated that the streamflow drought index in the post-monsoon season was marked by extreme level drought magnitude at G. Habibullah (2001), Muzaffarabad (2001), Yogo (1993) and Dhok Pathan (1998). The results of the current investigation would help policymakers to introduce new types of drought risk reduction measures for drought preparedness at the regional and the national level in Pakistan.

Graphic Abstract

中文翻译：

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巴基斯坦上印度河流域干旱强度和严重程度的空间分析，用标准化降水指数和径流干旱指数进行。

摘要

干旱是对世界农业，水资源供应和粮食安全产生负面影响的多维极端事件之一。印度河上游（UIB）是世界上主要的河流系统，占巴基斯坦地表水可利用量的80％。本研究的目的是使用标准化降水指数和径流干旱指数分析干旱严重程度和强度的空间格局。这些干旱指数用于估计1991-2017年期间的年度干旱，季风前后和季风干旱的特征和变化。结果表明，与西南侧相比，上印度河盆地东北侧受干旱的影响很大。1997年至1998年的持续时间与厄尔尼诺（El Nino）和拉尼娜（La Nina）（ENSO）密切相关。这种ENSO类型表明UIB从1998年到2002年连续5年出现了严重干旱。1996、1997、1998、2000、2001和2002年干旱年份，暖水海洋机制的发作也得到加强。在1999年的湿冷期观测到La Nina效应。该研究表明1991年和2001年发生了严重的SDI干旱。该研究还表明，季风后季节的水流干旱指数显着G. Habibullah（2001），Muzaffarabad（2001），Yogo（1993）和Dhok Pathan（1998）的极端干旱水平。

图形摘要