显示样式:     当前期刊: Nature Climate Change    加入关注    导出
我的关注
我的收藏
您暂时未登录!
登录
  • Measuring progress from nationally determined contributions to mid-century strategies
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-11-13
    Gokul Iyer, Catherine Ledna, Leon Clarke, James Edmonds, Haewon McJeon, Page Kyle, James H Williams

    The Paris Agreement requires countries to articulate near-term emissions reduction strategies through to 2025 or 2030 by communicating nationally determined contributions (NDCs), as well as encouraging the formulation of long-term low-emission development strategies (Article 4.19)1. In response, many countries have either submitted or are preparing mid-century strategies2. Most NDCs set high-level near-term goals—such as limits on emissions or emissions intensity3—which do not provide information about the extent to which they lay the foundations of technology, infrastructure and institutions for deeper reductions in the future, which is a key question for decision makers. Here, using a state-level model of the US embedded within a global integrated assessment model4,5, we demonstrate that although the US NDC lies on a straight-line emissions pathway towards its mid-century strategy, the resulting energy system transitions involve nonlinear transformations. The rates of capacity additions and capital investments in electricity generation beyond 2025 are more than three times the rates during the next decade. Our results demonstrate the need for global stocktaking exercises to evaluate the NDCs using metrics broader than emissions to better illuminate their effectiveness in addressing the Paris Agreement’s long-term goals6,7.

    更新日期:2017-11-13
  • Increasing frequency of extremely severe cyclonic storms over the Arabian Sea
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-11-13
    Hiroyuki Murakami, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Seth Underwood

    In 2014 and 2015, post-monsoon extremely severe cyclonic storms (ESCS)—defined by the WMO as tropical storms with lifetime maximum winds greater than 46 m s−1—were first observed over the Arabian Sea (ARB), causing widespread damage. However, it is unknown to what extent this abrupt increase in post-monsoon ESCSs can be linked to anthropogenic warming, natural variability, or stochastic behaviour. Here, using a suite of high-resolution global coupled model experiments that accurately simulate the climatological distribution of ESCSs, we show that anthropogenic forcing has likely increased the probability of late-season ECSCs occurring in the ARB since the preindustrial era. However, the specific timing of observed late-season ESCSs in 2014 and 2015 was likely due to stochastic processes. It is further shown that natural variability played a minimal role in the observed increase of ESCSs. Thus, continued anthropogenic forcing will further amplify the risk of cyclones in the ARB, with corresponding socio-economic implications.

    更新日期:2017-11-13
  • Towards real-time verification of CO2 emissions
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-11-13
    Glen P. Peters, Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Josep G. Canadell, Pierre Friedlingstein, Tatiana Ilyina, Robert B. Jackson, Fortunat Joos, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Galen A. McKinley, Stephen Sitch, Pieter Tans

    Towards real-time verification of CO2 emissions Towards real-time verification of CO2 emissions, Published online: 13 November 2017; doi:10.1038/s41558-017-0013-9 NatureArticleSnippet(type=standfirst, markup= The Paris Agreement has increased the incentive to verify reported anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions with independent Earth system observations. Reliable verification requires a step change in our understanding of carbon cycle variability. , isJats=true)

    更新日期:2017-11-13
  • Measuring progress from nationally determined contributions to mid-century strategies
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-11-13
    Gokul Iyer, Catherine Ledna, Leon Clarke, James Edmonds, Haewon McJeon, Page Kyle, James H Williams

    The Paris Agreement requires countries to articulate near-term emissions reduction strategies through to 2025 or 2030 by communicating nationally determined contributions (NDCs), as well as encouraging the formulation of long-term low-emission development strategies (Article 4.19)1. In response, many countries have either submitted or are preparing mid-century strategies2. Most NDCs set high-level near-term goals—such as limits on emissions or emissions intensity3—which do not provide information about the extent to which they lay the foundations of technology, infrastructure and institutions for deeper reductions in the future, which is a key question for decision makers. Here, using a state-level model of the US embedded within a global integrated assessment model4,5, we demonstrate that although the US NDC lies on a straight-line emissions pathway towards its mid-century strategy, the resulting energy system transitions involve nonlinear transformations. The rates of capacity additions and capital investments in electricity generation beyond 2025 are more than three times the rates during the next decade. Our results demonstrate the need for global stocktaking exercises to evaluate the NDCs using metrics broader than emissions to better illuminate their effectiveness in addressing the Paris Agreement’s long-term goals6,7.

    更新日期:2017-11-13
  • Increasing frequency of extremely severe cyclonic storms over the Arabian Sea
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-11-13
    Hiroyuki Murakami, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Seth Underwood

    In 2014 and 2015, post-monsoon extremely severe cyclonic storms (ESCS)—defined by the WMO as tropical storms with lifetime maximum winds greater than 46 m s−1—were first observed over the Arabian Sea (ARB), causing widespread damage. However, it is unknown to what extent this abrupt increase in post-monsoon ESCSs can be linked to anthropogenic warming, natural variability, or stochastic behaviour. Here, using a suite of high-resolution global coupled model experiments that accurately simulate the climatological distribution of ESCSs, we show that anthropogenic forcing has likely increased the probability of late-season ECSCs occurring in the ARB since the preindustrial era. However, the specific timing of observed late-season ESCSs in 2014 and 2015 was likely due to stochastic processes. It is further shown that natural variability played a minimal role in the observed increase of ESCSs. Thus, continued anthropogenic forcing will further amplify the risk of cyclones in the ARB, with corresponding socio-economic implications.

    更新日期:2017-11-13
  • Towards real-time verification of CO2 emissions
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-11-13
    Glen P. Peters, Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Josep G. Canadell, Pierre Friedlingstein, Tatiana Ilyina, Robert B. Jackson, Fortunat Joos, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Galen A. McKinley, Stephen Sitch, Pieter Tans

    Towards real-time verification of CO2 emissions Towards real-time verification of CO2 emissions, Published online: 13 November 2017; doi:10.1038/s41558-017-0013-9 NatureArticleSnippet(type=standfirst, markup= The Paris Agreement has increased the incentive to verify reported anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions with independent Earth system observations. Reliable verification requires a step change in our understanding of carbon cycle variability. , isJats=true)

    更新日期:2017-11-13
  • Effectiveness of state climate and energy policies in reducing power-sector CO2 emissions
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-11-06
    Geoff Martin, Eri Saikawa

    States have historically been the primary drivers of climate change policy in the US, particularly with regard to emissions from power plants. States have implemented policies designed either to directly curb greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from power plants, or to encourage energy efficiency and renewable energy growth. With the federal government withdrawing from the global climate agreement, understanding which state-level policies have successfully mitigated power-plant emissions is urgent. Past research has assessed policy effectiveness using data for periods before the adoption of many policies. We assess 17 policies using the latest data on state-level power-sector CO2 emissions. We find that policies with mandatory compliance are reducing power-plant emissions, while voluntary policies are not. Electric decoupling, mandatory GHG registry/reporting and public benefit funds are associated with the largest reduction in emissions. Mandatory GHG registry/reporting and public benefit funds are also associated with a large reduction in emissions intensity.

    更新日期:2017-11-07
  • Effectiveness of state climate and energy policies in reducing power-sector CO2 emissions
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-11-06
    Geoff Martin, Eri Saikawa

    States have historically been the primary drivers of climate change policy in the US, particularly with regard to emissions from power plants. States have implemented policies designed either to directly curb greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from power plants, or to encourage energy efficiency and renewable energy growth. With the federal government withdrawing from the global climate agreement, understanding which state-level policies have successfully mitigated power-plant emissions is urgent. Past research has assessed policy effectiveness using data for periods before the adoption of many policies. We assess 17 policies using the latest data on state-level power-sector CO2 emissions. We find that policies with mandatory compliance are reducing power-plant emissions, while voluntary policies are not. Electric decoupling, mandatory GHG registry/reporting and public benefit funds are associated with the largest reduction in emissions. Mandatory GHG registry/reporting and public benefit funds are also associated with a large reduction in emissions intensity.

    更新日期:2017-11-07
  • Warming alters energetic structure and function but not resilience of soil food webs
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-11-06
    Benjamin Schwarz, Andrew D. Barnes, Madhav P. Thakur, Ulrich Brose, Marcel Ciobanu, Peter B. Reich, Roy L. Rich, Benjamin Rosenbaum, Artur Stefanski, Nico Eisenhauer

    Climate warming is predicted to alter the structure, stability, and functioning of food webs1,2,3,4,5. Yet, despite the importance of soil food webs for energy and nutrient turnover in terrestrial ecosystems, the effects of warming on these food webs—particularly in combination with other global change drivers—are largely unknown. Here, we present results from two complementary field experiments that test the interactive effects of warming with forest canopy disturbance and drought on energy flux in boreal–temperate ecotonal forest soil food webs. The first experiment applied a simultaneous above- and belowground warming treatment (ambient, +1.7 °C, +3.4 °C) to closed-canopy and recently clear-cut forest, simulating common forest disturbance6. The second experiment crossed warming with a summer drought treatment (−40% rainfall) in the clear-cut habitats. We show that warming reduces energy flux to microbes, while forest canopy disturbance and drought facilitates warming-induced increases in energy flux to higher trophic levels and exacerbates the reduction in energy flux to microbes, respectively. Contrary to expectations, we find no change in whole-network resilience to perturbations, but significant losses in ecosystem functioning. Warming thus interacts with forest disturbance and drought, shaping the energetic structure of soil food webs and threatening the provisioning of multiple ecosystem functions in boreal–temperate ecotonal forests.

    更新日期:2017-11-06
  • Warming alters energetic structure and function but not resilience of soil food webs
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-11-06
    Benjamin Schwarz, Andrew D. Barnes, Madhav P. Thakur, Ulrich Brose, Marcel Ciobanu, Peter B. Reich, Roy L. Rich, Benjamin Rosenbaum, Artur Stefanski, Nico Eisenhauer

    Climate warming is predicted to alter the structure, stability, and functioning of food webs1,2,3,4,5. Yet, despite the importance of soil food webs for energy and nutrient turnover in terrestrial ecosystems, the effects of warming on these food webs—particularly in combination with other global change drivers—are largely unknown. Here, we present results from two complementary field experiments that test the interactive effects of warming with forest canopy disturbance and drought on energy flux in boreal–temperate ecotonal forest soil food webs. The first experiment applied a simultaneous above- and belowground warming treatment (ambient, +1.7 °C, +3.4 °C) to closed-canopy and recently clear-cut forest, simulating common forest disturbance6. The second experiment crossed warming with a summer drought treatment (−40% rainfall) in the clear-cut habitats. We show that warming reduces energy flux to microbes, while forest canopy disturbance and drought facilitates warming-induced increases in energy flux to higher trophic levels and exacerbates the reduction in energy flux to microbes, respectively. Contrary to expectations, we find no change in whole-network resilience to perturbations, but significant losses in ecosystem functioning. Warming thus interacts with forest disturbance and drought, shaping the energetic structure of soil food webs and threatening the provisioning of multiple ecosystem functions in boreal–temperate ecotonal forests.

    更新日期:2017-11-06
  • Towards process-informed bias correction of climate change simulations
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-11-02
    Douglas Maraun, Theodore G. Shepherd, Martin Widmann, Giuseppe Zappa, Daniel Walton, José M. Gutiérrez, Stefan Hagemann, Ingo Richter, Pedro M. M. Soares, Alex Hall, Linda O. Mearns

    Towards process-informed bias correction of climate change simulationsTowards process-informed bias correction of climate change simulations, Published online: 02 November 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3418NatureArticleSnippet(type=short-summary, markup=Bias correction methods aim to remove introduced bias for climate model simulations; however, improper use can result in spurious climate signals. This Perspective considers the issues of bias correction and makes recommendations for research to overcome model biases., isJats=true)

    更新日期:2017-11-02
  • Marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-11-02
    Randall W. Parkinson, Christopher Craft, Ronald D. DeLaune, Joseph F. Donoghue, Michael Kearney, John F. Meeder, James Morris, R. Eugene Turner

    Marsh vulnerability to sea-level riseMarsh vulnerability to sea-level rise, Published online: 02 November 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3424

    更新日期:2017-11-02
  • Climate adaptation: International governance
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-11-02
    Alastair Brown

    Climate adaptation: International governanceClimate adaptation: International governance, Published online: 02 November 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3430

    更新日期:2017-11-02
  • Media coverage: Portraying indigenous peoples
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-11-02
    Jenn Richler

    Media coverage: Portraying indigenous peoplesMedia coverage: Portraying indigenous peoples, Published online: 02 November 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3428

    更新日期:2017-11-02
  • Spreading like wildfire
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-11-02

    Spreading like wildfireSpreading like wildfire, Published online: 02 November 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3432NatureArticleSnippet(type=standfirst, markup=The 2017 wildfire season has seen unusually high fire levels in many parts of the world, with extensive and severe fires occurring in Chile, the Mediterranean, Russia, the US, Canada and even Greenland. Is this a sign of things to come?, isJats=true)

    更新日期:2017-11-02
  • Quantifying the economic risks of climate change
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-11-02
    Delavane Diaz, Frances Moore

    Quantifying the economic risks of climate changeQuantifying the economic risks of climate change, Published online: 02 November 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3411NatureArticleSnippet(type=short-summary, markup=This Review assesses climate change damage functions, which relate climate variables to economic losses, and how integrated information from impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research could be used to improve estimates of economic risk., isJats=true)

    更新日期:2017-11-02
  • Assigning historic responsibility for extreme weather events
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-11-02
    Friederike E. L. Otto, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, Terje Berntsen, Myles R. Allen

    Assigning historic responsibility for extreme weather eventsAssigning historic responsibility for extreme weather events, Published online: 02 November 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3419NatureArticleSnippet(type=standfirst, markup=Recent scientific advances make it possible to assign extreme events to human-induced climate change and historical emissions. These developments allow losses and damage associated with such events to be assigned country-level responsibility., isJats=true)

    更新日期:2017-11-02
  • Reply to 'Marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise'
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-11-02
    Matthew L. Kirwan, Stijn Temmerman, Glenn R. Guntenspergen, Sergio Fagherazzi

    Reply to 'Marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise'Reply to 'Marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise', Published online: 02 November 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3425

    更新日期:2017-11-02
  • Towards process-informed bias correction of climate change simulations
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-11-02
    Douglas Maraun, Theodore G. Shepherd, Martin Widmann, Giuseppe Zappa, Daniel Walton, José M. Gutiérrez, Stefan Hagemann, Ingo Richter, Pedro M. M. Soares, Alex Hall, Linda O. Mearns

    Towards process-informed bias correction of climate change simulationsTowards process-informed bias correction of climate change simulations, Published online: 02 November 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3418NatureArticleSnippet(type=short-summary, markup=Bias correction methods aim to remove introduced bias for climate model simulations; however, improper use can result in spurious climate signals. This Perspective considers the issues of bias correction and makes recommendations for research to overcome model biases., isJats=true)

    更新日期:2017-11-02
  • Marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-11-02
    Randall W. Parkinson, Christopher Craft, Ronald D. DeLaune, Joseph F. Donoghue, Michael Kearney, John F. Meeder, James Morris, R. Eugene Turner

    Marsh vulnerability to sea-level riseMarsh vulnerability to sea-level rise, Published online: 02 November 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3424

    更新日期:2017-11-02
  • Climate adaptation: International governance
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-11-02
    Alastair Brown

    Climate adaptation: International governanceClimate adaptation: International governance, Published online: 02 November 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3430

    更新日期:2017-11-02
  • Media coverage: Portraying indigenous peoples
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-11-02
    Jenn Richler

    Media coverage: Portraying indigenous peoplesMedia coverage: Portraying indigenous peoples, Published online: 02 November 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3428

    更新日期:2017-11-02
  • Spreading like wildfire
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-11-02

    Spreading like wildfireSpreading like wildfire, Published online: 02 November 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3432NatureArticleSnippet(type=standfirst, markup=The 2017 wildfire season has seen unusually high fire levels in many parts of the world, with extensive and severe fires occurring in Chile, the Mediterranean, Russia, the US, Canada and even Greenland. Is this a sign of things to come?, isJats=true)

    更新日期:2017-11-02
  • Quantifying the economic risks of climate change
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-11-02
    Delavane Diaz, Frances Moore

    Quantifying the economic risks of climate changeQuantifying the economic risks of climate change, Published online: 02 November 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3411NatureArticleSnippet(type=short-summary, markup=This Review assesses climate change damage functions, which relate climate variables to economic losses, and how integrated information from impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research could be used to improve estimates of economic risk., isJats=true)

    更新日期:2017-11-02
  • Assigning historic responsibility for extreme weather events
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-11-02
    Friederike E. L. Otto, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Jan S. Fuglestvedt, Terje Berntsen, Myles R. Allen

    Assigning historic responsibility for extreme weather eventsAssigning historic responsibility for extreme weather events, Published online: 02 November 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3419NatureArticleSnippet(type=standfirst, markup=Recent scientific advances make it possible to assign extreme events to human-induced climate change and historical emissions. These developments allow losses and damage associated with such events to be assigned country-level responsibility., isJats=true)

    更新日期:2017-11-02
  • Reply to 'Marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise'
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-11-02
    Matthew L. Kirwan, Stijn Temmerman, Glenn R. Guntenspergen, Sergio Fagherazzi

    Reply to 'Marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise'Reply to 'Marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise', Published online: 02 November 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3425

    更新日期:2017-11-02
  • Climate and water resource change impacts and adaptation potential for US power supply
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-10-30
    Ariel Miara, Jordan E. Macknick, Charles J. Vörösmarty, Vincent C. Tidwell, Robin Newmark, Balazs Fekete

    Climate and water resource change impacts and adaptation potential for US power supply Nature Climate Change, Published online: 30 October 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3417 Water-cooled power plants will be affected by changes in water availability and temperature. A system approach examines US thermoelectric power generation and finds whilst individual plants may face constraints, overall the current system can adapt.

    更新日期:2017-10-30
  • Higher climatological temperature sensitivity of soil carbon in cold than warm climates
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-10-30
    Charles D. Koven, Gustaf Hugelius, David M. Lawrence, William R. Wieder

    Higher climatological temperature sensitivity of soil carbon in cold than warm climates Nature Climate Change, Published online: 30 October 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3421 Soil carbon release remains a highly uncertain climate feedback. Research now shows that the temperature control on carbon turnover is more sensitive in cold climates, supporting projections of a strong carbon–climate feedback from northern soils.

    更新日期:2017-10-30
  • Climate policy: Uncovering ocean-related priorities
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-10-30
    Ralf Barkemeyer

    Given the complexity and multi-faceted nature of policy processes, national-level policy preferences are notoriously difficult to capture. Now, research applying an automated text mining approach helps to shed light on country-level differences and priorities in the context of marine climate issues.

    更新日期:2017-10-30
  • Ocean commitments under the Paris Agreement
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-10-30
    Natalya D. Gallo, David G. Victor, Lisa A. Levin

    Under the Paris Agreement nations made pledges known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), which indicate how national governments are evaluating climate risks and policy opportunities. We find that NDCs reveal important systematic patterns reflecting national interests and capabilities. Because the ocean plays critical roles in climate mitigation and adaptation, we created a quantitative marine focus factor (MFF) to evaluate how governments address marine issues. In contrast to the past, when oceans received minimal attention in climate negotiations, 70% of 161 NDCs we analysed include marine issues. The percentage of the population living in low-lying areas—vulnerable to rising seas—positively influences the MFF, but negotiating group (Annex 1 or small island developing states) is equally important, suggesting political motivations are crucial to NDC development. The analysis reveals gaps between scientific and government attention, including on ocean deoxygenation, which is barely mentioned. Governments display a keen interest in expanding marine research on climate priorities.

    更新日期:2017-10-30
  • Soil carbon: Depth of understanding
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-10-30
    Bernhard Ahrens, Markus Reichstein

    Earth system models disagree on the fate of soil organic carbon under climate change. Reproducing spatial patterns of the climatological temperature sensitivity of soil carbon is a necessary condition for trustworthy simulations of the carbon-cycle–climate feedback.

    更新日期:2017-10-30
  • Climate and water resource change impacts and adaptation potential for US power supply
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-10-30
    Ariel Miara, Jordan E. Macknick, Charles J. Vörösmarty, Vincent C. Tidwell, Robin Newmark, Balazs Fekete

    Climate and water resource change impacts and adaptation potential for US power supply Nature Climate Change, Published online: 30 October 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3417 Water-cooled power plants will be affected by changes in water availability and temperature. A system approach examines US thermoelectric power generation and finds whilst individual plants may face constraints, overall the current system can adapt.

    更新日期:2017-10-30
  • Higher climatological temperature sensitivity of soil carbon in cold than warm climates
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-10-30
    Charles D. Koven, Gustaf Hugelius, David M. Lawrence, William R. Wieder

    Higher climatological temperature sensitivity of soil carbon in cold than warm climates Nature Climate Change, Published online: 30 October 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3421 Soil carbon release remains a highly uncertain climate feedback. Research now shows that the temperature control on carbon turnover is more sensitive in cold climates, supporting projections of a strong carbon–climate feedback from northern soils.

    更新日期:2017-10-30
  • Climate policy: Uncovering ocean-related priorities
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-10-30
    Ralf Barkemeyer

    Climate policy: Uncovering ocean-related priorities Nature Climate Change, Published online: 30 October 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3423 Given the complexity and multi-faceted nature of policy processes, national-level policy preferences are notoriously difficult to capture. Now, research applying an automated text mining approach helps to shed light on country-level differences and priorities in the context of marine climate issues.

    更新日期:2017-10-30
  • Ocean commitments under the Paris Agreement
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-10-30
    Natalya D. Gallo, David G. Victor, Lisa A. Levin

    Under the Paris Agreement nations made pledges known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), which indicate how national governments are evaluating climate risks and policy opportunities. We find that NDCs reveal important systematic patterns reflecting national interests and capabilities. Because the ocean plays critical roles in climate mitigation and adaptation, we created a quantitative marine focus factor (MFF) to evaluate how governments address marine issues. In contrast to the past, when oceans received minimal attention in climate negotiations, 70% of 161 NDCs we analysed include marine issues. The percentage of the population living in low-lying areas—vulnerable to rising seas—positively influences the MFF, but negotiating group (Annex 1 or small island developing states) is equally important, suggesting political motivations are crucial to NDC development. The analysis reveals gaps between scientific and government attention, including on ocean deoxygenation, which is barely mentioned. Governments display a keen interest in expanding marine research on climate priorities.

    更新日期:2017-10-30
  • Soil carbon: Depth of understanding
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-10-30
    Bernhard Ahrens, Markus Reichstein

    Earth system models disagree on the fate of soil organic carbon under climate change. Reproducing spatial patterns of the climatological temperature sensitivity of soil carbon is a necessary condition for trustworthy simulations of the carbon-cycle–climate feedback.

    更新日期:2017-10-30
  • Brazilian sugarcane ethanol as an expandable green alternative to crude oil use
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-10-23
    Deepak Jaiswal, Amanda P. De Souza, Søren Larsen, David S. LeBauer, Fernando E. Miguez, Gerd Sparovek, Germán Bollero, Marcos S. Buckeridge, Stephen P. Long

    Brazilian sugarcane ethanol as an expandable green alternative to crude oil use Nature Climate Change, Published online: 23 October 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3410 Biofuels have lower CO2 emissions than fossil fuels, but competing land demands can limit expansion of production. This study shows Brazilian sugarcane ethanol could displace up to 13% of global crude oil consumption by 2045 whilst balancing forest conservation and future land demand for food.

    更新日期:2017-10-30
  • Outward migration may alter population dynamics and income inequality
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-10-23
    Soheil Shayegh

    Outward migration may alter population dynamics and income inequality Nature Climate Change, Published online: 23 October 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3420 Climate change may drive migration from affected regions. This study shows that, because skilled individuals will have greater migration opportunities, climate change may lead parents to have fewer children and invest more in each individual child, with consequences for local income inequality.

    更新日期:2017-10-30
  • Brazilian sugarcane ethanol as an expandable green alternative to crude oil use
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-10-23
    Deepak Jaiswal, Amanda P. De Souza, Søren Larsen, David S. LeBauer, Fernando E. Miguez, Gerd Sparovek, Germán Bollero, Marcos S. Buckeridge, Stephen P. Long

    Brazilian sugarcane ethanol as an expandable green alternative to crude oil use Nature Climate Change, Published online: 23 October 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3410 Biofuels have lower CO2 emissions than fossil fuels, but competing land demands can limit expansion of production. This study shows Brazilian sugarcane ethanol could displace up to 13% of global crude oil consumption by 2045 whilst balancing forest conservation and future land demand for food.

    更新日期:2017-10-30
  • Outward migration may alter population dynamics and income inequality
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-10-23
    Soheil Shayegh

    Outward migration may alter population dynamics and income inequality Nature Climate Change, Published online: 23 October 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3420 Climate change may drive migration from affected regions. This study shows that, because skilled individuals will have greater migration opportunities, climate change may lead parents to have fewer children and invest more in each individual child, with consequences for local income inequality.

    更新日期:2017-10-30
  • Corrigendum: Future global mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    Raquel A. Silva, J. Jason West, Jean-François Lamarque, Drew T. Shindell, William J. Collins, Greg Faluvegi, Gerd A. Folberth, Larry W. Horowitz, Tatsuya Nagashima, Vaishali Naik, Steven T. Rumbold, Kengo Sudo, Toshihiko Takemura, Daniel Bergmann, Philip Cameron-Smith, Ruth M. Doherty, Beatrice Josse, Ian A. MacKenzie, David  S. Stevenson, Guang Zeng

    Corrigendum: Future global mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change Nature Climate Change, Published online: 16 October 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3427

    更新日期:2017-10-16
  • Anthropogenic climate change detected in European renewable freshwater resources
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    Lukas Gudmundsson, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Xuebin Zhang

    Anthropogenic climate change detected in European renewable freshwater resources Nature Climate Change, Published online: 16 October 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3416 Changes in European river flow have amplified the dry-south–wet-north contrast. Model simulations show that anthropogenic climate change accounts for this change with strong decreases in the Mediterranean and weak increases in northern Europe.

    更新日期:2017-10-16
  • The appeasement effect of a United Nations climate summit on the German public
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    Michael Brüggemann, Fenja De Silva-Schmidt, Imke Hoppe, Dorothee Arlt, Josephine B. Schmitt

    The appeasement effect of a United Nations climate summit on the German public Nature Climate Change, Published online: 9 October 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3409 As a global media event, COP 21 had the potential to enhance understanding and motivate political action. This study shows that although media coverage reached the German public and promoted conference-specific knowledge, this did not translate into active engagement.

    更新日期:2017-10-16
  • Weakening of the North American monsoon with global warming
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    Salvatore Pascale, William R. Boos, Simona Bordoni, Thomas L. Delworth, Sarah B. Kapnick, Hiroyuki Murakami, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Wei Zhang

    Weakening of the North American monsoon with global warming Nature Climate Change, Published online: 9 October 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3412 Past studies suggest the North American monsoon will weaken in the future. Correcting for model sea-surface temperature biases, however, reveals a reduction in monsoon-related precipitation due to increased atmospheric stability.

    更新日期:2017-10-16
  • Habitat-based conservation strategies cannot compensate for climate-change-induced range loss
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    Johannes Wessely, Karl Hülber, Andreas Gattringer, Michael Kuttner, Dietmar Moser, Wolfgang Rabitsch, Stefan Schindler, Stefan Dullinger, Franz Essl

    Habitat-based conservation strategies cannot compensate for climate-change-induced range loss Nature Climate Change, Published online: 9 October 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3414 Distribution modelling of vascular plants, butterflies and grasshoppers in central Europe suggests that habitat-based conservation strategies will be insufficient to save species from regional extinction under twenty-first-century climate change.

    更新日期:2017-10-16
  • Coral bleaching pathways under the control of regional temperature variability
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    C. E. Langlais, A. Lenton, S. F. Heron, C. Evenhuis, A. Sen Gupta, J. N. Brown, M. Kuchinke

    Increasing sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are predicted to adversely impact coral populations worldwide through increasing thermal bleaching events. Future bleaching is unlikely to be spatially uniform. Therefore, understanding what determines regional differences will be critical for adaptation management. Here, using a cumulative heat stress metric, we show that characteristics of regional SST determine the future bleaching risk patterns. Incorporating observed information on SST variability, in assessing future bleaching risk, provides novel options for management strategies. As a consequence, the known biases in climate model variability and the uncertainties in regional warming rate across climate models are less detrimental than previously thought. We also show that the thresholds used to indicate reef viability can strongly influence a decision on what constitutes a potential refugia. Observing and understanding the drivers of regional variability, and the viability limits of coral reefs, is therefore critical for making meaningful projections of coral bleaching risk.

    更新日期:2017-10-16
  • Potential volcanic impacts on future climate variability
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    Ingo Bethke, Stephen Outten, Odd Helge Otterå, Ed Hawkins, Sebastian Wagner, Michael Sigl, Peter Thorne

    Potential volcanic impacts on future climate variability Nature Climate Change, Published online: 2 October 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3394 Projections of future climate do not typically include the effects of volcanic activity. By incorporating a range of volcanic futures into a coupled model, it is shown that volcanic forcing has quantifiable impacts on the time at which anthropogenic signatures emerge across various climate metrics.

    更新日期:2017-10-16
  • Progress in climate modelling
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    Graham Simpkins

    Progress in climate modelling Nature Climate Change, Published online: 29 September 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3398 Development and planning for the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) has been years in the making. Nature Climate Change speaks to the Chair of the CMIP Panel, Veronika Eyring, about the aims and projected outcomes of the project.

    更新日期:2017-10-16
  • Corrigendum: Future global mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    Raquel A. Silva, J. Jason West, Jean-François Lamarque, Drew T. Shindell, William J. Collins, Greg Faluvegi, Gerd A. Folberth, Larry W. Horowitz, Tatsuya Nagashima, Vaishali Naik, Steven T. Rumbold, Kengo Sudo, Toshihiko Takemura, Daniel Bergmann, Philip Cameron-Smith, Ruth M. Doherty, Beatrice Josse, Ian A. MacKenzie, David  S. Stevenson, Guang Zeng

    Corrigendum: Future global mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change Nature Climate Change, Published online: 16 October 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3427

    更新日期:2017-10-16
  • Anthropogenic climate change detected in European renewable freshwater resources
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    Lukas Gudmundsson, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Xuebin Zhang

    Anthropogenic climate change detected in European renewable freshwater resources Nature Climate Change, Published online: 16 October 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3416 Changes in European river flow have amplified the dry-south–wet-north contrast. Model simulations show that anthropogenic climate change accounts for this change with strong decreases in the Mediterranean and weak increases in northern Europe.

    更新日期:2017-10-16
  • The appeasement effect of a United Nations climate summit on the German public
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    Michael Brüggemann, Fenja De Silva-Schmidt, Imke Hoppe, Dorothee Arlt, Josephine B. Schmitt

    The appeasement effect of a United Nations climate summit on the German public Nature Climate Change, Published online: 9 October 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3409 As a global media event, COP 21 had the potential to enhance understanding and motivate political action. This study shows that although media coverage reached the German public and promoted conference-specific knowledge, this did not translate into active engagement.

    更新日期:2017-10-16
  • Weakening of the North American monsoon with global warming
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    Salvatore Pascale, William R. Boos, Simona Bordoni, Thomas L. Delworth, Sarah B. Kapnick, Hiroyuki Murakami, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Wei Zhang

    Weakening of the North American monsoon with global warming Nature Climate Change, Published online: 9 October 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3412 Past studies suggest the North American monsoon will weaken in the future. Correcting for model sea-surface temperature biases, however, reveals a reduction in monsoon-related precipitation due to increased atmospheric stability.

    更新日期:2017-10-16
  • Habitat-based conservation strategies cannot compensate for climate-change-induced range loss
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    Johannes Wessely, Karl Hülber, Andreas Gattringer, Michael Kuttner, Dietmar Moser, Wolfgang Rabitsch, Stefan Schindler, Stefan Dullinger, Franz Essl

    Habitat-based conservation strategies cannot compensate for climate-change-induced range loss Nature Climate Change, Published online: 9 October 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3414 Distribution modelling of vascular plants, butterflies and grasshoppers in central Europe suggests that habitat-based conservation strategies will be insufficient to save species from regional extinction under twenty-first-century climate change.

    更新日期:2017-10-16
  • Coral bleaching pathways under the control of regional temperature variability
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    C. E. Langlais, A. Lenton, S. F. Heron, C. Evenhuis, A. Sen Gupta, J. N. Brown, M. Kuchinke

    Increasing sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are predicted to adversely impact coral populations worldwide through increasing thermal bleaching events. Future bleaching is unlikely to be spatially uniform. Therefore, understanding what determines regional differences will be critical for adaptation management. Here, using a cumulative heat stress metric, we show that characteristics of regional SST determine the future bleaching risk patterns. Incorporating observed information on SST variability, in assessing future bleaching risk, provides novel options for management strategies. As a consequence, the known biases in climate model variability and the uncertainties in regional warming rate across climate models are less detrimental than previously thought. We also show that the thresholds used to indicate reef viability can strongly influence a decision on what constitutes a potential refugia. Observing and understanding the drivers of regional variability, and the viability limits of coral reefs, is therefore critical for making meaningful projections of coral bleaching risk.

    更新日期:2017-10-16
  • Potential volcanic impacts on future climate variability
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    Ingo Bethke, Stephen Outten, Odd Helge Otterå, Ed Hawkins, Sebastian Wagner, Michael Sigl, Peter Thorne

    Potential volcanic impacts on future climate variability Nature Climate Change, Published online: 2 October 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3394 Projections of future climate do not typically include the effects of volcanic activity. By incorporating a range of volcanic futures into a coupled model, it is shown that volcanic forcing has quantifiable impacts on the time at which anthropogenic signatures emerge across various climate metrics.

    更新日期:2017-10-16
  • Progress in climate modelling
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    Graham Simpkins

    Progress in climate modelling Nature Climate Change, Published online: 29 September 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3398 Development and planning for the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) has been years in the making. Nature Climate Change speaks to the Chair of the CMIP Panel, Veronika Eyring, about the aims and projected outcomes of the project.

    更新日期:2017-10-16
  • Climate policy: Transparency for Loss and Damage
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    Reinhard Mechler

    Climate policy: Transparency for Loss and Damage Nature Climate Change, Published online: 25 September 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3401 Loss and Damage (L&D) has been gaining traction since the Paris Agreement took the issue on as a separate article, arguably creating a third pillar of international climate policy. Debate so far has led to vague definitions of the remit of the L&D mechanism; research on actor perspectives may help to propel this discourse forward.

    更新日期:2017-09-26
  • A typology of loss and damage perspectives
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    Emily Boyd, Rachel A. James, Richard G. Jones, Hannah R. Young, Friederike E. L. Otto

    Loss and Damage (L&D) has been the subject of contentious debate in international climate policy for several decades. Recently, formal mechanisms on L&D have been established, but arguably through unclear language. This ambiguity is politically important, but researchers and practitioners require clearer understandings of L&D. Here we report on the first in-depth empirical study of actor perspectives, including interviews with 38 key stakeholders in research, practice, and policy. We find points of agreement and also important distinctions in terms of: the relationship between L&D and adaptation, the emphasis on avoiding versus addressing L&D, the relevance of anthropogenic climate change, and the role of justice. A typology of four perspectives is identified, with different implications for research priorities and actions to address L&D. This typology enables improved understanding of existing perspectives and so has potential to facilitate more transparent discussion of the options available to address L&D.

    更新日期:2017-09-26
  • Membership nominations in international scientific assessments
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    Philip Leifeld, Dana R. Fisher

    International scientific assessments are transnational knowledge-based expert networks with a mandate to advise policymakers. A well-known example is the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA), which synthesized research on ecosystem services between 2001 and 2005, utilizing the knowledge of 1,360 expert members. Little, however, is known about the membership composition and the driving forces behind membership nominations in the MA and similar organizations. Here we introduce a survey data set on recruitment in the MA and analyse nomination patterns among experts as a complex network. The results indicate that membership recruitment was governed by prior contacts in other transnational elite organizations and a range of other factors related to personal affinity. Network analysis demonstrates how some core individuals were particularly influential in shaping the overall membership composition of the group. These findings add to recently noted concerns about the lack of diversity of views represented in international scientific assessments.

    更新日期:2017-09-26
  • Climate policy: Transparency for Loss and Damage
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    Reinhard Mechler

    Climate policy: Transparency for Loss and Damage Nature Climate Change, Published online: 25 September 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3401 Loss and Damage (L&D) has been gaining traction since the Paris Agreement took the issue on as a separate article, arguably creating a third pillar of international climate policy. Debate so far has led to vague definitions of the remit of the L&D mechanism; research on actor perspectives may help to propel this discourse forward.

    更新日期:2017-09-26
Some contents have been Reproduced with permission of the American Chemical Society.
Some contents have been Reproduced by permission of The Royal Society of Chemistry.
化学 · 材料 期刊列表