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  • Urban cross-sector actions for carbon mitigation with local health co-benefits in China
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    Anu Ramaswami, Kangkang Tong, Andrew Fang, Raj M. Lal, Ajay Singh Nagpure, Yang Li, Huajun Yu, Daqian Jiang, Armistead G. Russell, Lei Shi, Marian Chertow, Yangjun Wang, Shuxiao Wang

    Cities offer unique strategies to reduce fossil fuel use through the exchange of energy and materials across homes, businesses, infrastructure and industries co-located in urban areas. However, the large-scale impact of such strategies has not been quantified. Using new models and data sets representing 637 Chinese cities, we find that such cross-sectoral strategies—enabled by compact urban design and circular economy policies—contribute an additional 15%–36% to national CO2 mitigation, compared to conventional single-sector strategies. As a co-benefit, ~25,500 to ~57,500 deaths annually are avoided from air pollution reduction. The benefits are highly variable across cities, ranging from <1%–37% for CO2 emission reduction and <1%–47% for avoided premature deaths. These results, using multi-scale, multi-sector physical systems modelling, identify cities with high carbon and health co-benefit potential and show that urban–industrial symbiosis is a significant carbon mitigation strategy, achievable with a combination of existing and advanced technologies in diverse city types.

    更新日期:2017-09-19
  • Western Pacific emergent constraint lowers projected increase in Indian summer monsoon rainfall
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    Gen Li, Shang-Ping Xie, Chao He, Zesheng Chen

    Western Pacific emergent constraint lowers projected increase in Indian summer monsoon rainfall Nature Climate Change, Published online: 18 September 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3387 Climate models typically predict an increase in Indian summer monsoon rainfall with anthropogenic warming. Correcting for precipitation biases in the tropical western Pacific using an emergent constraint methodology, however, reduces the magnitude of these increases by ∼50%.

    更新日期:2017-09-19
  • Mitigation: Decarbonization unique to cities
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    Nadine Ibrahim

    Mitigation: Decarbonization unique to cities Nature Climate Change, Published online: 18 September 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3372 Strategies that reduce fossil-fuel use can achieve both global carbon mitigation and local health-protection goals. Now research shows the dual benefits of compact urban design and circular economy policies in Chinese cities.

    更新日期:2017-09-19
  • Increased costs to US pavement infrastructure from future temperature rise
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    B. Shane Underwood, Zack Guido, Padmini Gudipudi, Yarden Feinberg

    Increased costs to US pavement infrastructure from future temperature rise Nature Climate Change, Published online: 18 September 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3390 The selection of materials for road construction in the United States is based on assumptions of a stationary climate. With increasing temperatures, upholding these practices could add up to US$26.3 billion in US-wide maintenance costs by 2040 under RCP8.5.

    更新日期:2017-09-19
  • Urban cross-sector actions for carbon mitigation with local health co-benefits in China
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    Anu Ramaswami, Kangkang Tong, Andrew Fang, Raj M. Lal, Ajay Singh Nagpure, Yang Li, Huajun Yu, Daqian Jiang, Armistead G. Russell, Lei Shi, Marian Chertow, Yangjun Wang, Shuxiao Wang

    Cities offer unique strategies to reduce fossil fuel use through the exchange of energy and materials across homes, businesses, infrastructure and industries co-located in urban areas. However, the large-scale impact of such strategies has not been quantified. Using new models and data sets representing 637 Chinese cities, we find that such cross-sectoral strategies—enabled by compact urban design and circular economy policies—contribute an additional 15%–36% to national CO2 mitigation, compared to conventional single-sector strategies. As a co-benefit, ~25,500 to ~57,500 deaths annually are avoided from air pollution reduction. The benefits are highly variable across cities, ranging from <1%–37% for CO2 emission reduction and <1%–47% for avoided premature deaths. These results, using multi-scale, multi-sector physical systems modelling, identify cities with high carbon and health co-benefit potential and show that urban–industrial symbiosis is a significant carbon mitigation strategy, achievable with a combination of existing and advanced technologies in diverse city types.

    更新日期:2017-09-19
  • Western Pacific emergent constraint lowers projected increase in Indian summer monsoon rainfall
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    Gen Li, Shang-Ping Xie, Chao He, Zesheng Chen

    Western Pacific emergent constraint lowers projected increase in Indian summer monsoon rainfall Nature Climate Change, Published online: 18 September 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3387 Climate models typically predict an increase in Indian summer monsoon rainfall with anthropogenic warming. Correcting for precipitation biases in the tropical western Pacific using an emergent constraint methodology, however, reduces the magnitude of these increases by ∼50%.

    更新日期:2017-09-19
  • Mitigation: Decarbonization unique to cities
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    Nadine Ibrahim

    Mitigation: Decarbonization unique to cities Nature Climate Change, Published online: 18 September 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3372 Strategies that reduce fossil-fuel use can achieve both global carbon mitigation and local health-protection goals. Now research shows the dual benefits of compact urban design and circular economy policies in Chinese cities.

    更新日期:2017-09-19
  • Increased costs to US pavement infrastructure from future temperature rise
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    B. Shane Underwood, Zack Guido, Padmini Gudipudi, Yarden Feinberg

    Increased costs to US pavement infrastructure from future temperature rise Nature Climate Change, Published online: 18 September 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3390 The selection of materials for road construction in the United States is based on assumptions of a stationary climate. With increasing temperatures, upholding these practices could add up to US$26.3 billion in US-wide maintenance costs by 2040 under RCP8.5.

    更新日期:2017-09-19
  • Biology: Survival of the finfish
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    Jennifer Sunday

    Biology: Survival of the finfishNature Climate Change, Published online: 11 September 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3395A trait-based approach for assessing physiological sensitivity to climate change can connect a species' evolutionary past with its future vulnerability. Now a global assessment of freshwater and marine fishes reveals patterns of warming sensitivity, highlighting the importance of different biogeographies and identifying places where vulnerability runs high.

    更新日期:2017-09-12
  • Climatic vulnerability of the world’s freshwater and marine fishes
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    Lise Comte, Julian D. Olden

    Climatic vulnerability of the world’s freshwater and marine fishesNature Climate Change, Published online: 11 September 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3382To understand how species will cope with warming, knowledge of the thermal limits is needed. This study estimates 2,960 ray-fin fish species’ thermal sensitivity. Comparison with projected warming highlights vulnerable freshwater and marine regions.

    更新日期:2017-09-12
  • Biology: Survival of the finfish
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    Jennifer Sunday

    Biology: Survival of the finfish Nature Climate Change, Published online: 11 September 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3395 A trait-based approach for assessing physiological sensitivity to climate change can connect a species' evolutionary past with its future vulnerability. Now a global assessment of freshwater and marine fishes reveals patterns of warming sensitivity, highlighting the importance of different biogeographies and identifying places where vulnerability runs high.

    更新日期:2017-09-11
  • Climatic vulnerability of the world’s freshwater and marine fishes
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    Lise Comte, Julian D. Olden

    Climatic vulnerability of the world’s freshwater and marine fishes Nature Climate Change, Published online: 11 September 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3382 To understand how species will cope with warming, knowledge of the thermal limits is needed. This study estimates 2,960 ray-fin fish species’ thermal sensitivity. Comparison with projected warming highlights vulnerable freshwater and marine regions.

    更新日期:2017-09-11
  • More losers than winners in a century of future Southern Ocean seafloor warming
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    Huw J. Griffiths, Andrew J. S. Meijers, Thomas J. Bracegirdle

    The waters of the Southern Ocean are projected to warm over the coming century, with potential adverse consequences for native cold-adapted organisms. Warming waters have caused temperate marine species to shift their ranges poleward. The seafloor animals of the Southern Ocean shelf have long been isolated by the deep ocean surrounding Antarctica and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, with little scope for southward migration. How these largely endemic species will react to future projected warming is unknown. By considering 963 invertebrate species, we show that within the current century, warming temperatures alone are unlikely to result in wholesale extinction or invasion affecting Antarctic seafloor life. However, 79% of Antarctica’s endemic species do face a significant reduction in suitable temperature habitat (an average 12% reduction). Our findings highlight the species and regions most likely to respond significantly (negatively and positively) to warming and have important implications for future management of the region.

    更新日期:2017-09-07
  • Change in the magnitude and mechanisms of global temperature variability with warming
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    Patrick T. Brown, Yi Ming, Wenhong Li, Spencer A. Hill

    Natural unforced variability in global mean surface air temperature (GMST) can mask or exaggerate human-caused global warming, and thus a complete understanding of this variability is highly desirable. Significant progress has been made in elucidating the magnitude and physical origins of present-day unforced GMST variability, but it has remained unclear how such variability may change as the climate warms. Here we present modelling evidence that indicates that the magnitude of low-frequency GMST variability is likely to decline in a warmer climate and that its generating mechanisms may be fundamentally altered. In particular, a warmer climate results in lower albedo at high latitudes, which yields a weaker albedo feedback on unforced GMST variability. These results imply that unforced GMST variability is dependent on the background climatological conditions, and thus climate model control simulations run under perpetual pre-industrial conditions may have only limited relevance for understanding the unforced GMST variability of the future.

    更新日期:2017-09-07
  • Climate variability: Picking apart climate models
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    Chris Huntingford

    Climate variability: Picking apart climate models Nature Climate Change, Published online: 4 September 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3391 Data and model-based evidence suggests that future weather patterns will be more complex than simply those of the past plus background warming. Now research offers physical explanations of how short-term climate variability might adjust.

    更新日期:2017-09-07
  • Rapid adaptive responses to climate change in corals
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-09-01
    Gergely Torda, Jennifer M. Donelson, Manuel Aranda, Daniel J. Barshis, Line Bay, Michael L. Berumen, David G. Bourne, Neal Cantin, Sylvain Foret, Mikhail Matz, David J. Miller, Aurelie Moya, Hollie M. Putnam, Timothy Ravasi, Madeleine J. H. van Oppen, Rebecca Vega Thurber, Jeremie Vidal-Dupiol, Christian R. Voolstra, Sue-Ann Watson, Emma Whitelaw, Bette L. Willis, Philip L. Munday

    Rapid adaptive responses to climate change in corals Nature Climate Change, Published online: 1 September 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3374

    更新日期:2017-09-07
  • Solar geoengineering reduces atmospheric carbon burden
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-09-01
    David W. Keith, Gernot Wagner, Claire L. Zabel

    Solar geoengineering reduces atmospheric carbon burden Nature Climate Change, Published online: 1 September 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3376 Solar geoengineering is no substitute for cutting emissions, but could nevertheless help reduce the atmospheric carbon burden. In the extreme, if solar geoengineering were used to hold radiative forcing constant under RCP8.5, the carbon burden may be reduced by ∼100 GTC, equivalent to 12–26% of twenty-first-century emissions at a cost of under US$0.5 per tCO2.

    更新日期:2017-09-07
  • Climate risks across borders and scales
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-09-01
    Andrew J. Challinor, W. Neil Adger, Tim G. Benton

    Climate risks across borders and scales Nature Climate Change, Published online: 1 September 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3380 Changing climates are outpacing some components of our food systems. Risk assessments need to account for these rates of change. Assessing risk transmission mechanisms across sectors and international boundaries and coordinating policies across governments are key steps in addressing this challenge.

    更新日期:2017-09-07
  • Improving the use of climate information in decision-making
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-09-01
    Chris D. Hewitt, Roger C. Stone, Andrew B. Tait

    Improving the use of climate information in decision-making Nature Climate Change, Published online: 1 September 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3378 To enable society to better manage the risks and opportunities arising from changes in climate, engagement between the users and the providers of climate information needs to be much more effective and should better link climate information with decision-making.

    更新日期:2017-09-07
  • Geoengineering: Perceived controllability
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    Jenn Richler

    Geoengineering: Perceived controllability Nature Climate Change, Published online: 1 September 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3384

    更新日期:2017-09-07
  • Getting involved
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-09-01

    Public participation in climate change research is reaching new-found heights due to an explosion in the number and diversity of citizen-science projects. These offer distinct opportunities for scientists to encourage education and outreach whilst maximising scientific gain.

    更新日期:2017-09-04
  • Catalysing a political shift from low to negative carbon
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    Glen P. Peters, Oliver Geden

    Policymakers are beginning to understand the scale of carbon dioxide removal that is required to keep global warming “well below 2 °C”. This understanding must now be translated into policies that give business the incentive to research, develop and deploy the required technologies.

    更新日期:2017-09-04
  • Flooding: Prioritizing protection?
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-07-31
    Pascal Peduzzi

    With climate change, urban development and economic growth, more assets and infrastructures will be exposed to flooding. Now research shows that investments in flood protection are globally beneficial, but have varied levels of benefit locally.

    更新日期:2017-09-04
  • Less than 2 °C warming by 2100 unlikely
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-07-31
    Adrian E. Raftery, Alec Zimmer, Dargan M. W. Frierson, Richard Startz, Peiran Liu

    Using a fully statistical approach, the paper shows that the most likely range of cumulative CO2 emissions includes the IPCC’s two middle scenarios but not the extreme ones. Carbon intensity reduction should accelerate to achieve the 1.5 °C warming target.

    更新日期:2017-09-04
  • A global framework for future costs and benefits of river-flood protection in urban areas
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-07-31
    Philip J. Ward, Brenden Jongman, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Paul D. Bates, Wouter J. W. Botzen, Andres Diaz Loaiza, Stephane Hallegatte, Jarl M. Kind, Jaap Kwadijk, Paolo Scussolini, Hessel C. Winsemius

    Managing future flood risk is necessary to minimize costs and achieve maximum benefit from investment. This study presents a framework to assess urban structural protection under climate change and socio-economic development.

    更新日期:2017-09-04
  • Future global mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-07-31
    Raquel A. Silva, J. Jason West, Jean-François Lamarque, Drew T. Shindell, William J. Collins, Greg Faluvegi, Gerd A. Folberth, Larry W. Horowitz, Tatsuya Nagashima, Vaishali Naik, Steven T. Rumbold, Kengo Sudo, Toshihiko Takemura, Daniel Bergmann, Philip Cameron-Smith, Ruth M. Doherty, Beatrice Josse, Ian A. MacKenzie, David S. Stevenson, Guang Zeng

    The effect of ozone and fine particulate matter on human health is dependent on emissions and climate change. Here the effects of climate change on air pollution mortality are isolated, with increases predicted in all regions except Africa.

    更新日期:2017-09-04
  • Committed warming inferred from observations
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-07-31
    Thorsten Mauritsen, Robert Pincus

    Even if fossil-fuel emissions were to cease immediately, continued anthropogenic warming is expected. Here, observation-based estimates indicate there is a 13% risk that committed warming already exceeds the 1.5 K Paris target.

    更新日期:2017-09-04
  • Enhanced warming of the subtropical mode water in the North Pacific and North Atlantic
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    Shusaku Sugimoto, Kimio Hanawa, Tomowo Watanabe, Toshio Suga, Shang-Ping Xie

    Warming of surface ocean waters is well known, but how the subsurface waters are changing is less clear. This study shows that subtropical mode water in the North Atlantic and North Pacific is warming at twice the rate of the surface waters.

    更新日期:2017-09-04
  • Unexpected changes in community size structure in a natural warming experiment
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    Eoin J. O’Gorman, Lei Zhao, Doris E. Pichler, Georgina Adams, Nikolai Friberg, Björn C. Rall, Alex Seeney, Huayong Zhang, Daniel C. Reuman, Guy Woodward

    A warmer climate is generally expected to favour smaller organisms and steeper body-mass–abundance scaling through food webs. Results from across a stream temperature gradient now show that this effect can be offset by increasing nutrient supply.

    更新日期:2017-09-04
  • Karakoram temperature and glacial melt driven by regional atmospheric circulation variability
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    Nathan Forsythe, Hayley J. Fowler, Xiao-Feng Li, Stephen Blenkinsop, David Pritchard

    Identifying mechanisms driving spatially heterogeneous glacial mass-balance patterns in the Himalaya, including the ‘Karakoram anomaly’, is crucial for understanding regional water resource trajectories. Streamflows dependent on glacial meltwater are strongly positively correlated with Karakoram summer air temperatures, which show recent anomalous cooling. We explain these temperature and streamflow anomalies through a circulation system—the Karakoram vortex—identified using a regional circulation metric that quantifies the relative position and intensity of the westerly jet. Winter temperature responses to this metric are homogeneous across South Asia, but the Karakoram summer response diverges from the rest of the Himalaya. We show that this is due to seasonal contraction of the Karakoram vortex through its interaction with the South Asian monsoon. We conclude that interannual variability in the Karakoram vortex, quantified by our circulation metric, explains the variability in energy-constrained ablation manifested in river flows across the Himalaya, with important implications for Himalayan glaciers’ futures.

    更新日期:2017-09-04
  • More losers than winners in a century of future Southern Ocean seafloor warming
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    Huw J. Griffiths, Andrew J. S. Meijers, Thomas J. Bracegirdle

    The waters of the Southern Ocean are projected to warm over the coming century, with potential adverse consequences for native cold-adapted organisms. Warming waters have caused temperate marine species to shift their ranges poleward. The seafloor animals of the Southern Ocean shelf have long been isolated by the deep ocean surrounding Antarctica and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, with little scope for southward migration. How these largely endemic species will react to future projected warming is unknown. By considering 963 invertebrate species, we show that within the current century, warming temperatures alone are unlikely to result in wholesale extinction or invasion affecting Antarctic seafloor life. However, 79% of Antarctica’s endemic species do face a significant reduction in suitable temperature habitat (an average 12% reduction). Our findings highlight the species and regions most likely to respond significantly (negatively and positively) to warming and have important implications for future management of the region.

    更新日期:2017-09-04
  • Change in the magnitude and mechanisms of global temperature variability with warming
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    Patrick T. Brown, Yi Ming, Wenhong Li, Spencer A. Hill

    Natural unforced variability in global mean surface air temperature (GMST) can mask or exaggerate human-caused global warming, and thus a complete understanding of this variability is highly desirable. Significant progress has been made in elucidating the magnitude and physical origins of present-day unforced GMST variability, but it has remained unclear how such variability may change as the climate warms. Here we present modelling evidence that indicates that the magnitude of low-frequency GMST variability is likely to decline in a warmer climate and that its generating mechanisms may be fundamentally altered. In particular, a warmer climate results in lower albedo at high latitudes, which yields a weaker albedo feedback on unforced GMST variability. These results imply that unforced GMST variability is dependent on the background climatological conditions, and thus climate model control simulations run under perpetual pre-industrial conditions may have only limited relevance for understanding the unforced GMST variability of the future.

    更新日期:2017-09-04
  • Climate variability: Picking apart climate models
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    Chris Huntingford

    Climate variability: Picking apart climate models Nature Climate Change, Published online: 4 September 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3391 Data and model-based evidence suggests that future weather patterns will be more complex than simply those of the past plus background warming. Now research offers physical explanations of how short-term climate variability might adjust.

    更新日期:2017-09-04
  • Rapid adaptive responses to climate change in corals
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    Gergely Torda, Jennifer M. Donelson, Manuel Aranda, Daniel J. Barshis, Line Bay, Michael L. Berumen, David G. Bourne, Neal Cantin, Sylvain Foret, Mikhail Matz, David J. Miller, Aurelie Moya, Hollie M. Putnam, Timothy Ravasi, Madeleine J. H. van Oppen, Rebecca Vega Thurber, Jeremie Vidal-Dupiol, Christian R. Voolstra, Sue-Ann Watson, Emma Whitelaw, Bette L. Willis, Philip L. Munday

    Rapid adaptive responses to climate change in corals Nature Climate Change, Published online: 1 September 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3374

    更新日期:2017-09-04
  • Solar geoengineering reduces atmospheric carbon burden
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    David W. Keith, Gernot Wagner, Claire L. Zabel

    Solar geoengineering reduces atmospheric carbon burden Nature Climate Change, Published online: 1 September 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3376 Solar geoengineering is no substitute for cutting emissions, but could nevertheless help reduce the atmospheric carbon burden. In the extreme, if solar geoengineering were used to hold radiative forcing constant under RCP8.5, the carbon burden may be reduced by ∼100 GTC, equivalent to 12–26% of twenty-first-century emissions at a cost of under US$0.5 per tCO2.

    更新日期:2017-09-04
  • Climate risks across borders and scales
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    Andrew J. Challinor, W. Neil Adger, Tim G. Benton

    Climate risks across borders and scales Nature Climate Change, Published online: 1 September 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3380 Changing climates are outpacing some components of our food systems. Risk assessments need to account for these rates of change. Assessing risk transmission mechanisms across sectors and international boundaries and coordinating policies across governments are key steps in addressing this challenge.

    更新日期:2017-09-04
  • Improving the use of climate information in decision-making
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    Chris D. Hewitt, Roger C. Stone, Andrew B. Tait

    Improving the use of climate information in decision-making Nature Climate Change, Published online: 1 September 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3378 To enable society to better manage the risks and opportunities arising from changes in climate, engagement between the users and the providers of climate information needs to be much more effective and should better link climate information with decision-making.

    更新日期:2017-09-04
  • Geoengineering: Perceived controllability
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    Jenn Richler

    Geoengineering: Perceived controllability Nature Climate Change, Published online: 1 September 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3384

    更新日期:2017-09-04
  • Threats to North American forests from southern pine beetle with warming winters
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    Corey Lesk, Ethan Coffel, Anthony W. D’Amato, Kevin Dodds, Radley Horton

    Threats to North American forests from southern pine beetle with warming winters Nature Climate Change, Published online: 28 August 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3375 The southern pine beetle is projected to be able to expand into vast areas of the northeastern US and southeastern Canada by 2050 posing risks to forest structure, biodiversity and associated ecosystem services.

    更新日期:2017-08-28
  • Pragmatic disaster loss assessment
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    J. Handmer, M. A. Ladds, L. Magee

    Pragmatic disaster loss assessment Nature Climate Change, Published online: 2 August 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3349

    更新日期:2017-08-25
  • Stop preaching to the converted
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-08-02
    Asheley R. Landrum, Robert B. Lull

    Stop preaching to the converted Nature Climate Change, Published online: 2 August 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3355 Traditional moral arguments fail to persuade conservative climate sceptics. Pope Francis' gifting of his climate encyclical to President Trump prior to his leaving the Paris Agreement shows that even a religious leader's persuasive power is constrained by how his message resonates with conservative moral values.

    更新日期:2017-08-25
  • Impacts of the Larsen-C Ice Shelf calving event
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-08-02
    Anna E. Hogg, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson

    Impacts of the Larsen-C Ice Shelf calving event Nature Climate Change, Published online: 2 August 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3359 A giant iceberg has calved off the Larsen-C Ice Shelf, the largest remaining ice shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula, reducing its total area by ~10%. Whilst calving events are a natural phenomenon and thus not necessarily indicative of changing environmental conditions, such events can impact ice-shelf stability.

    更新日期:2017-08-25
  • Glaciology: Cloud loss melts Greenland
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    Graham Simpkins

    Glaciology: Cloud loss melts Greenland Nature Climate Change, Published online: 2 August 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3363

    更新日期:2017-08-25
  • Choices to be made
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-08-02

    Local and regional authorities are making climate-conscious choices, whilst climate change impacts will soon mean individuals need to make choices to survive.

    更新日期:2017-08-24
  • Cities spearhead climate action
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-08-02
    Mark Watts

    Following President Trump's withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, cities worldwide have pledged support to combat climate change. Along with a growing coalition of businesses and institutions, cities represent a beacon of hope for carbon reduction in politically tumultuous times.

    更新日期:2017-08-24
  • Businesses lead where US falters
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-08-02
    Erica Gies

    The Paris Agreement requires commitments from countries to take action and reduce emissions, but the corporate world is also looking at its contribution to mitigation.

    更新日期:2017-08-24
  • Sea-level-rise impacts: Questioning inevitable migration
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-07-24
    Dominic Kniveton

    It is assumed that sea-level rise due to climate change will be so severe that those living near sea level will be forced to relocate. However, new research around a series of islands that have suffered subsidence due to a recent earthquake suggests that instead, island residents remain and use a range of strategies to adapt to regular flooding.

    更新日期:2017-08-24
  • Climate impacts of oil extraction increase significantly with oilfield age
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-07-17
    Mohammad S. Masnadi, Adam R. Brandt

    The footprint of oil typically considers combustion emissions, neglecting extraction emissions. This study shows that production declines with depletion for 25 significant oil fields, whilst emissions increase through greater energy expenditure.

    更新日期:2017-08-24
  • Climate dynamics: Land warming revives monsoon
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-07-24
    Mathew Koll Roxy

    A weakening land–ocean temperature difference, owing to a rapidly warming Indian Ocean, has seen the Indian monsoon trending downward since the 1950s. New research gives hope for a revival in monsoon rainfall as land warming catches up with, and exceeds, ocean warming.

    更新日期:2017-08-24
  • Balancing Europe’s wind-power output through spatial deployment informed by weather regimes
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-07-17
    Christian M. Grams, Remo Beerli, Stefan Pfenninger, Iain Staffell, Heini Wernli

    Weather regimes drive variability in wind-power generation across Europe, affecting energy security. Strategically deployed wind turbines in regions of contrasting weather regime behaviour can be used to balance wind capacity and minimize output variability.

    更新日期:2017-08-24
  • Importance of the pre-industrial baseline for likelihood of exceeding Paris goals
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-07-24
    Andrew P. Schurer, Michael E. Mann, Ed Hawkins, Simon F. B. Tett, Gabriele C. Hegerl

    In order to meet internationally agreed temperature limits, it is important to have a defined baseline. This study shows for low-emission scenarios the likelihood and timing of exceedance are highly dependent on the baseline, as are allowable carbon emissions.

    更新日期:2017-08-24
  • Continued increase of extreme El Niño frequency long after 1.5 °C warming stabilization
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-07-24
    Guojian Wang, Wenju Cai, Bolan Gan, Lixin Wu, Agus Santoso, Xiaopei Lin, Zhaohui Chen, Michael J. McPhaden

    CMIP5 simulations reveal that the frequency of extreme El Niño events doubles under the 1.5 °C Paris target, and continues to increase long after global temperatures stabilize due to emission reductions. Extreme La Niña events, however, see little change at either 1.5 °C or 2 °C warming.

    更新日期:2017-08-24
  • The limits of modifying migration speed to adjust to climate change
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-07-17
    Heiko Schmaljohann, Christiaan Both

    Analysis synthesizing 49 tracking studies shows that flexibility in the major determinant of migration duration is insufficient to adjust to ongoing climate change, and is unlikely to explain many of the changes in arrival timing already observed.

    更新日期:2017-08-24
  • Human disturbance and upward expansion of plants in a warming climate
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-07-10
    Matteo Dainese, Sami Aikio, Philip E. Hulme, Alessio Bertolli, Filippo Prosser, Lorenzo Marini

    A large proportion of European alpine plants are able to spread upslope faster than current climate velocities. Nevertheless, invasive species tend to be particularly effective dispersers, making them an additional pressure on the vulnerable native flora.

    更新日期:2017-08-24
  • Small-island communities in the Philippines prefer local measures to relocation in response to sea-level rise
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-07-24
    Ma. Laurice Jamero, Motoharu Onuki, Miguel Esteban, Xyza Kristina Billones-Sensano, Nicholson Tan, Angelie Nellas, Hiroshi Takagi, Nguyen Danh Thao, Ven Paolo Valenzuela

    Most adaptation studies suggest that sea-level rise will lead to relocation as flooding worsens. Here we identified and evaluated potential adaptation strategies for adapting to sea-level rise, based on the experiences of four low-lying island communities in central Philippines that have experienced flooding during normal high tides since a 2013 earthquake that induced land subsidence. Coastal surveys, interviews and household questionnaires showed that island residents generally prefer in situ adaptation strategies rather than relocation to the mainland. These results are unexpected, particularly because a relocation programme has been developed by authorities on the mainland. Direct measurements during a flooding event indicate stilted housing as the most effective type of adaptation strategy. Many households have also raised their floors using coral stones, although this might inadvertently increase their vulnerability to typhoons and storm surges in the long-term.

    更新日期:2017-08-24
  • A revival of Indian summer monsoon rainfall since 2002
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-07-24
    Qinjian Jin, Chien Wang

    A significant reduction in summer monsoon rainfall has been observed in northern central India during the second half of the twentieth century, threatening water security and causing widespread socio-economic impacts. Here, using various observational data sets, we show that monsoon rainfall has increased in India at 1.34 mm d−1 decade−1 since 2002. This apparent revival of summer monsoon precipitation is closely associated with a favourable land–ocean temperature gradient, driven by a strong warming signature over the Indian subcontinent and slower rates of warming over the Indian Ocean. The continental Indian warming is attributed to a reduction of low cloud due to decreased ocean evaporation in the Arabian Sea, and thus decreased moisture transport to India. Global climate models fail to capture the observed rainfall revival and corresponding trends of the land–ocean temperature gradient, with implications for future projections of the Indian monsoon.

    更新日期:2017-08-24
  • Localized rapid warming of West Antarctic subsurface waters by remote winds
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-07-17
    Paul Spence, Ryan M. Holmes, Andrew McC. Hogg, Stephen M. Griffies, Kial D. Stewart, Matthew H. England

    The highest rates of Antarctic glacial ice mass loss are occurring to the west of the Antarctica Peninsula in regions where warming of subsurface continental shelf waters is also largest. However, the physical mechanisms responsible for this warming remain unknown. Here we show how localized changes in coastal winds off East Antarctica can produce significant subsurface temperature anomalies (>2 °C) around much of the continent. We demonstrate how coastal-trapped barotropic Kelvin waves communicate the wind disturbance around the Antarctic coastline. The warming is focused on the western flank of the Antarctic Peninsula because the circulation induced by the coastal-trapped waves is intensified by the steep continental slope there, and because of the presence of pre-existing warm subsurface water offshore. The adjustment to the coastal-trapped waves shoals the subsurface isotherms and brings warm deep water upwards onto the continental shelf and closer to the coast. This result demonstrates the vulnerability of the West Antarctic region to a changing climate.

    更新日期:2017-08-24
  • Arctic sea-ice decline weakens the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 2017-07-31
    Florian Sévellec, Alexey V. Fedorov, Wei Liu

    The ongoing decline of Arctic sea ice exposes the ocean to anomalous surface heat and freshwater fluxes, resulting in positive buoyancy anomalies that can affect ocean circulation. In this study, we use an optimal flux perturbation framework and comprehensive climate model simulations to estimate the sensitivity of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to such buoyancy forcing over the Arctic and globally, and more generally to sea-ice decline. It is found that on decadal timescales, flux anomalies over the subpolar North Atlantic have the largest impact on the AMOC, while on multi-decadal timescales (longer than 20 years), flux anomalies in the Arctic become more important. These positive buoyancy anomalies spread to the North Atlantic, weakening the AMOC and its poleward heat transport. Therefore, the Arctic sea-ice decline may explain the suggested slow-down of the AMOC and the ‘Warming Hole’ persisting in the subpolar North Atlantic.

    更新日期:2017-08-24
  • Enhanced warming of the subtropical mode water in the North Pacific and North Atlantic
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    Shusaku Sugimoto, Kimio Hanawa, Tomowo Watanabe, Toshio Suga, Shang-Ping Xie

    Enhanced warming of the subtropical mode water in the North Pacific and North Atlantic Nature Climate Change, Published online: 21 August 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3371 Warming of surface ocean waters is well known, but how the subsurface waters are changing is less clear. This study shows that subtropical mode water in the North Atlantic and North Pacific is warming at twice the rate of the surface waters.

    更新日期:2017-08-24
  • Unexpected changes in community size structure in a natural warming experiment
    Nat. Clim. Change (IF 19.304) Pub Date : 
    Eoin J. O’Gorman, Lei Zhao, Doris E. Pichler, Georgina Adams, Nikolai Friberg, Björn C. Rall, Alex Seeney, Huayong Zhang, Daniel C. Reuman, Guy Woodward

    Unexpected changes in community size structure in a natural warming experiment Nature Climate Change, Published online: 21 August 2017; doi:10.1038/nclimate3368 A warmer climate is generally expected to favour smaller organisms and steeper body-mass–abundance scaling through food webs. Results from across a stream temperature gradient now show that this effect can be offset by increasing nutrient supply.

    更新日期:2017-08-24
Some contents have been Reproduced with permission of the American Chemical Society.
Some contents have been Reproduced by permission of The Royal Society of Chemistry.
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